River Flood Warning 6, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2013

.Short term...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

Thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall were continuing to move
southeast into Northeast and East Central Kansas this morning. Radar
loops show a storm induced MCV near Abilene moving southeast.
Precipitation area has become more progressive since 07Z. MESO
analysis shows strong moisture transport into North Central and East
Central Kansas as the low level jet continues to veer to the
southwest. This will place East Central Kansas under the gun through
12z.

Isentropic lift in the 310-315K layer will continue through 15Z this
morning. Given the high theta-e air advecting into East Central
Kansas expect efficient rainfall production as the complex of storms
moves southeast this morning. Convection should be on the wane by
late morning. Mesoscale boundaries will be a focus for additional
development this afternoon and evening. Instability will increase
this afternoon with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/KG forecast. Also boundary
in Nebraska will be an additional focus with storms moving southeast
into North Central and Northeast Kansas tonight.

Depending on where the boundary sets up will favor the higher
probabilities of precipitation this afternoon and evening, most
likely over East Central Kansas. Heavy rainfall threat will continue
as 850 MB moisture transport increases into East Central Kansas.
Some storms may also produce hail and strong winds. Will focus
highest POPs across the East Central tonight. Highs today will be in
the 80s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI AUG
2 2013

The active pattern for this summer will continue through the mid
range and extended forecast period. For the majority of the weekend
and next week the area will remain under northwest mid level flow,
characterized by H5 winds in the 30 to 40 knot range, and upper
level H25 winds in the 40 to 50 knot range. By this weekend a
surface ridge will form across the northern plains, extending
northward into continental Canada. The southern edge of this ridge
will represent a surface boundary, where nearly continual chances for
showers and thunderstorms will reside through the weekend into next
week. For Saturday and Saturday night rain chances will increase
from west to east along the surface boundary as the overnight low
level jet interacts with that boundary. Expect those showers to push
off to the east through the overnight hours Saturday night into
Sunday morning, bringing a decent batch of rain to most of northeast
Kansas. Precipitation chances will dwindle through the day on
Sunday, and likely be relegated to the southeastern zones (East
Central Kansas) for Sunday night into Monday morning. Also
sustaining the several chances for rain in the extended period,
especially after Monday will be one or more impulses of energy
embedded within the northwest flow. The exact timing and location of
these impulses is rather uncertain that far out, but the potential
for these embedded waves, as well as the nearly stationary boundary,
which is expected to linger in the area for the next several days,
will prompt the seemingly continuous chance for rain through the
entire mid range and extended forecast. Generally speaking, with the
potential for a large portion of the area to be north of the
stationary boundary, as well as several periods of thick, passing
clouds and rain expect temperatures to be at or well below normal
through the extended period. Forecast highs through the weekend and
next week will call for lower to mid 80s, with upper 80s south of
Interstate 70, however those temps could be cooler should cloud
cover and rain interfere with diurnal warm ups.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

The convective system continues to move through south towards the
terminals...and has weakened suggesting the boundary layer has
stabilized somewhat. Think SHRA with embedded TS will persist
until the westward extend of the MCS dies or moves east. Models
show QPF hanging on well into Friday morning...but were also to
slow to bring the cold pool into KS. because of this will hedge to
precip ending sooner than models have. Conditions should be VFR
unless a heavier downpour moves through which could cause some
temporary MVFR VSBY and CIGS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WOYNICK
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
517 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH ONE INCH HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS
EVENING.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...
AND MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN LATE
JULY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAIN TOTALS OVER ONE INCH AND
ANY SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH AND ANY
WIND DAMAGE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
103 AM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE COURTLAND          39.80N 97.88W
08/02/2013  M2.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 11 PM THURSDAY.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
240 AM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CONCORDIA               39.57N 97.66W
08/02/2013  M5.24 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR...STILL RAINING.

&&

JL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 AM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE TALMAGE            39.09N 97.18W
08/02/2013  M3.18 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL AS OF 6 AM.

&&

JL