Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Instability and warm temperatures this
afternoon will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to eastern
portions of Central Montana. Locations with the greatest potential
for storms will be along along and east of a line from Dillon to
Havre. Storms will diminish through the night before ramping up
again on Friday. Friday will bring a better chance of more
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms as a shortwave trough
moves through Central Montana from the southwest. Parameters look
marginal for severe storms but any that do develop will likely be
over Southwest Montana. Yet another round of convective activity
looks possible later Saturday but coverage looks fairly scattered
and mostly weak in nature. Temperatures will continue to cool
another 5 to 10 degrees across much of Montana through the weekend.

Saturday night through Thursday...A broad upper level trough over
Western Canada will maintain westerly flow aloft over the
Northern Rockies and MT through early next week before upper
level ridging rebuilds over the interior Western US mid to late
next week. Several shortwaves embedded within the flow aloft
around the base of the trough will move across the region during
the period, bringing daily chances for at least isolated showers
and thunderstorms as the airmass destabilizes each afternoon.
Surface pressure gradients through early next week will support
light easterly winds, which should help keep low level moisture
and relatively high dewpoints in place over the plains of north-
central MT where coverage of daily convection is anticipated to
be somewhat greater than over SW MT where low level moisture will
be more limited. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages
through early next week before increasing late in the week as the
ridge of high pressure rebuilds. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1750Z
VFR conditions prevailing through the period. An approaching
mid-level trough axis and surface frontal boundary will lead to
isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon over central
Montana...mostly affecting eastern terminals of KHVR and KLWT. Given
a moderately unstable air mass, a few storms could be strong to
severe. It appears that KHVR has the best chance for thunderstorm
activity in its vicinity between 21z/Thu to 01z/Fri. Weaker
thunderstorms are expected over southwest Montana where convection
will be mostly focused over the mountains. Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  81  53  80 /  10  30  30  30
CTB  54  75  49  75 /  10  30  40  30
HLN  58  84  54  82 /  20  40  40  20
BZN  54  84  50  83 /  30  40  50  20
WEY  45  76  42  76 /  30  50  40  30
DLN  54  82  50  82 /  30  50  30  10
HVR  58  82  55  80 /  30  20  30  20
LWT  55  80  51  76 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
405 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

MTZ008-011>013-015-047-050>055-051200-
BEAVERHEAD-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-MADISON-BLAINE-JUDITH BASIN-
FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
405 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM DILLON TO HAVRE...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR THE HOLIDAY...PLEASE BE
MINDFUL OF THE WEATHER SITUATION IN YOUR AREA...AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME STORMS ON FRIDAY MAY BECOME STRONG AGAIN
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY
REPORTS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...OR HEAVY RAINFALL TO LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS
ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

MTZ009-010-014-044>046-048-049-051200-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
EASTERN PONDERA-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-
405 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1228 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

MTZ051-041945-
FERGUS MT-
1228 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM MDT...

AT 1226 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...RANGING FROM 23 TO 35 MILES NORTH OF
LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   FERGUS...
   ROY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4726 10869 4725 10871 4722 10873 4728 10941
      4768 10934 4771 10881 4768 10877 4766 10877
      4765 10872 4763 10867 4762 10855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 270DEG 17KT 4737 10924

MPJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
130 PM MDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             4 SW CHRISTINA          47.34N 109.39W
07/04/2013  E0.25 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

PN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
140 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

MTZ051-042045-
FERGUS MT-
140 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MDT...

AT 135 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ROY TO 7 MILES EAST OF LEWISTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   FORESTGROVE...
   GRASS RANGE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4674 10864 4674 10916 4707 10941 4737 10879
      4727 10866 4725 10871 4719 10870 4717 10873
      4711 10873 4710 10862 4709 10860 4675 10861
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 317DEG 21KT 4725 10881 4704 10925

MPJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
318 PM MDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             17 SSE GRASS RANGE      46.80N 108.67W
07/04/2013  E1.50 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL FALLING ON HIGHWAY 191 NEAR MILE
            MARKER 29.

&&

BRUSDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
331 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

MTZ011-047-042215-
BLAINE MT-HILL MT-
331 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HILL AND NORTHWESTERN
BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 330 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTH OF HAVRE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHINOOK AND THE MUD
LAKE AREA.

LAT...LON 4891 10912 4853 10917 4872 10990 4894 10980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 277DEG 15KT 4882 10970

BRUSDA

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