Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Great Falls, MT

313 
WWUS85 KTFX 191723
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1123 AM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

MTZ115>118-200300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0004.130819T2000Z-130820T0300Z/
CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-
LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-
HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL
FOREST-
1123 AM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
115...116...117 AND 118.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 115...116...117 AND 118.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.

* TIMING...THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE
  EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NEAR 10 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...85 TO 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

896 
WWUS85 KTFX 200251
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
851 PM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

MTZ115>118-200400-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130820T0300Z/
CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-
LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-
HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL
FOREST-
851 PM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
ZONES 115...116...117 AND 118.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH INCREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast on track and made only modest adjustments reducing
chances of precipitation southwest for evening update. High
pressure ridge covering the region will bring mild temperatures,
mostly clear skies and little to no chance of precipitation to
north central and southwest Montana tonight. With decreasing winds
and increasing relative humidities...the Red Flag Warning that was
in effect for fire zones 115...117 and 118 has been cancelled.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.
Westerly flow aloft continues. The air mass will remain generally
stable. Surface winds will increase after 18z and become breezy. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 625 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2013/
Tonight through Tuesday...Quasi-zonal flow has developed across
central Montana as the shortwave trough which brought convection
over central MT earlier today continues to migrate eastward into
the Dakotas. A closed low continues to be positioned off the coast
of California with guidance indicating this feature to remain
nearly stationary through the first part of the week. Foltz

Tuesday night through Sunday...A weak shortwave will cross central
Montana Tuesday night and, coupled with moisture increasing over
Southwest Montana, shower and thunderstorm activity should
continue well into the evening in this area. An upper level high
pressure ridge will build again Wednesday although moisture ahead
of a low pressure center over northern California will continue to
move across Southwest Montana. The ridge will move east of the
zones Thursday, the flow aloft will switch to the southwest, and
afternoon instability will spread across the region. Greatest
instabilities should be across Southwest Montana northeast across
Blaine county. The airmass will continue to be unstable Friday
afternoon and evening as heights aloft continue to lower ahead of
a broad low pressure trof spreading over the Eastern Pacific and
West Coast. This pattern will continue through Sunday with
afternoon instability, showers, and thunderstorms developing each
afternoon. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  92  55  89 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  52  86  52  83 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  57  92  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  50  91  50  90 /   0   0  10  10
WEY  38  84  39  81 /   0   0  10  20
DLN  50  89  51  87 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  56  90  56  86 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  54  88  53  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT SUN AUG 18 2013

MTZ008>015-044>055-200300-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
855 PM MDT SUN AUG 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.