Tornado Warning 25, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AT THE MOMENT. MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND POPS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WHILE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
GULF COAST DUE TO THE ELEVATED SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. STILL
EXPECT A GOOD EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST RAIN
PROBABILITIES ACROSS COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE MERGER OF THE TWO SEA
BREEZES WILL OCCUR. COULD SEE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ONCE
AGAIN...WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY DOWN INTO FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY TO SHIFT SOUTH TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...THE RATHER LIGHT FLOW WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ON
THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE SHIFTING OF THE
WINDS WILL CAUSE THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST POPS TO CHANGE FROM THE
COASTAL COUNTIES ON THURSDAY TO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE SCATTERED POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON...WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ONSHORE
INTO THE NATURE COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S INLAND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOWS NEAR THE COAST MAY
ONLY FALL TO AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTION LATER INTO
THE EVENING....WITH VARIABLE GUSTINESS AROUND STORMS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SINK SOUTH TO
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  40
FMY  74  92  75  92 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  74  92  74  92 /  10  40  20  40
SRQ  74  91  74  90 /  30  40  30  40
BKV  71  92  72  92 /  30  40  30  40
SPG  78  90  78  90 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM...CLOSE
AVIATION...GARCIA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-242200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
520 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING THE BEST STORM COVERAGE
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FOCUS THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES...THEN LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP SHIFTING THE BEST
CHANCES TO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRC