Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS WELL ROOTED OVER ATLANTIC AND
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AWAY FROM FLORIDA
AS TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN PLACE NORTH
OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
EACH AFTERNOON TO KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LIMITED.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BUBBLE UP OVER THE INTERIOR JUST AFTER
NOON AND MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
GULF...PEAKING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN NEAR THE COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2 INCHES
EACH DAY. AS SUCH...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY EASY TIME
FORMING...WITH AROUND 50 PERCENT COVERAGE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN WASHES OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING CAUSING SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN BY 04Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DURING TUESDAY
MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THEN ANY CEILINGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE
3000 FEET BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EAST WINDS...GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 3 TO 4 FEET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM
OVER LAND EACH AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS WITH HUMIDITY. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS...MOSTLY ALONG THE
NATURE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  90  76  90 /  40  50  20  50
FMY  75  91  75  93 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  74  92  75  91 /  20  50  20  40
SRQ  75  92  76  92 /  40  50  30  50
BKV  72  92  72  91 /  40  50  20  50
SPG  78  90  78  89 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/COLOSN
AVIATION...69/CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
523 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-191600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
523 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...CONTINUING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

COLSON

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