Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND NORTHERN GULF WILL SINK SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT. IF THE RIDGE SINKS SOUTH QUICK ENOUGH...THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL BE PUSHED INLAND WITH STORMS
TONIGHT MOVING ACROSS SUMTER AND POLK COUNTIES. IF THE RIDGE SINKS
SLOW ENOUGH...THE SEA BREEZE WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST AND SHOWERS
WILL PERHAPS MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS EITHER POSSIBILITY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND NATURE COAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH WET GROUND FROM
RAINS THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAGS A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHICH WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA SUPPORT
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
1.7-1.9 INCHES. WITH THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A GOOD SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO FORM WITH CHANCE RANGE POPS (30-40 PERCENT).

WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE SINKS FARTHER SOUTH TO OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE NATURE COAST BEFORE TRAVELING OUT OF THE AREA. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA.  THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL INDUCE A L/W
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FLORIDA.  THE U/L RIDGE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUILDING BACK OVER FLORIDA KICKING OUT THE U/L TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE
INLAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  AS THE U/L TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  WITH ONSHORE WEST
FLOW PERSISTING COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
EXTENDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ISOLATED INLAND.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. WEAK FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE...GUSTY WINDS INFLUENCE BY CONVECTION
OUTFLOW AND SEA/BAY/LAKE BREEZES. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS REMAINING OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY TO SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...TYPICALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  90  76  90 /  10  30  20  30
FMY  74  92  75  91 /  20  40  20  40
GIF  74  93  74  93 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  74  89  75  89 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  71  91  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  78  89  78  89 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION...GARCIA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-102130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
530 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
THE MANATEE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS WILL REMAIN NEAR FLOOD STAGE
TODAY...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE THE RIVERS TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HORSE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND
SHOULD DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...AND AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR THAN ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY

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