Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1015 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

.UPDATE...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SOUTH OF THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY COULD END UP BEING A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IN THE END IT WILL
BE THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THAT DOMINATE
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TODAY.

THE 12Z TBW SOUNDING IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY AND APPEARS
TO BE SUPPORTED OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE WET BULB
ZERO IS HIGH AT 13KFT...BUT A MODIFIED SOUNDING COMES IN WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -9.6 / AN MDPI OF .93 /CAPE OF 4000 AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ABOUT 2 INCHES. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
TWO DEGREES OF COOLING ABOVE 550 MB WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE UPWARD RESULTING IN BRIEF STRONG UPDRAFTS AND A
SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. THE LACK OF SHEAR MEANS WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH MAINLY SHORT DURATION PULSE STORMS RATHER THAN LONGER
DURATION ROTATING STORMS. IN ANY EVENT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
A BUSY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING SLOWLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST TODAY.

FOR THE UPDATE...I AM GOING TO ADD WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE. I WILL ALSO RAISE POPS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD WHERE THE HRRR...
EASTARW4 AND OUR LOCAL MODELS SHOW HIGHEST RAIN POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING..AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO UNDER A DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GOOD INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD STORMS PUSHING
BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON AND MORE
LIKELY EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. PILOTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THE ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL IN THE VCNTY OF MOST TAF SITES AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOTE...MARINERS WITH BOATING PLANS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER OFTEN. A BAND OR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
WHICH COULD CUT OFF ANY SAFE ROUTE BACK TO THE COAST.

THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BRIDGE ACROSS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SEA
BREEZES NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE/SURGE WILL PUSH THIS BOUNDARY OFFSHORE BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF STRONG STORMS. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON
AVIATION...MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
507 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-152115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
507 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
256 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FLZ051-052-151945-
POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-
256 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN
POLK COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR HIGHLAND CITY...OR NEAR
BARTOW...MOVING WEST AT AROUND 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
LAKELAND...CRYSTAL LAKE...LAKELAND HIGHLANDS AND BARTOW MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...THROUGH 345 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 14 AND 44.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2768 8173 2765 8220 2792 8229 2817 8229
      2816 8171 2795 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 077DEG 24KT 2794 8193

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