Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND FROM THE COAST AND WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE INLAND WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT MAY FORM ON OUTFLOWS. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
EARLY MORNING GULF AND COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE INLAND WITH TIME AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTER OF THE STATE. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN ZONES IF THE GFS IS RIGHT IN BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FOR THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON TRACK
TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE MAIN LONGWAVE RIDGE STAYS MORE OR
LESS ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL ROTATE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FIRST
OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAIL A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND STALL OUT ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BUILDS IN
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
SATURDAY. THROUGH ALL THIS..THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKLY
DEFINED...BUT STAY GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...STARTING OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 4...AND LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 BY NEXT
WEEKEND. GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO FORM EACH DAY WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INLAND.
MOISTURE WILL STAY PLENTIFUL WITH 1.5 INCHES OR MORE...AND USUALLY
CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS A RESULT...THE AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE 30-40 PERCENT STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH VCTS
THROUGH 20Z...EXCEPT FOR KSRQ...WHICH HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  77  91 /  20  30  20  30
FMY  75  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  50
GIF  75  94  75  94 /  20  30  20  40
SRQ  75  89  75  90 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  71  93  70  93 /  20  30  20  30
SPG  80  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
AVIATION...25/DAVIS/WYNN
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING