River Flood Warning 25, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
344 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...LARGE MCS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF
PRODUCED SINKING AIR ALOFT WHICH RESULTED IN WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS MORNING. SINCE
THEN...THE MCS HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND THE SUBSIDENCE IS NO LONGER
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HEATING AND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MANY OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH A FEW LIKELY APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 8 OR 9 PM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE 2 INCHES...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT BEST PINNED RIGHT AT
THE GULF COAST. WILL SHOW 50 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND DO EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG STORMS
WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WASH OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEADING TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE LAGGING
THIS AFTERNOON BUT INCREASED COVERAGE  IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.  EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND
AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES AROUND 20Z-22Z. ADDED A TEMPO IN FOR ALL
TAF SITES FOR TSRA AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 0Z - 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET BUT MAY BE CLOSE TO 4
FEET IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. A WEAK SEA
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  77  90 /  40  60  20  50
FMY  75  93  76  92 /  30  60  20  50
GIF  75  93  75  91 /  30  60  20  50
SRQ  75  91  76  92 /  50  60  20  50
BKV  73  92  74  90 /  30  60  20  50
SPG  78  91  78  89 /  50  60  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...CARLISLE
AVIATION...BARRON