River Flood Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
352 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
VERY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A CUTOFF LOW
ALOFT AND A STRONG SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE WEAKENED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINS
FARTHER WEST INTO THE GULF AND NORTH TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWEST
WITH SURFACE WINDS GAINING MORE OF A EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS
SUCH...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THE BEST STORM COVERAGE
OCCURRING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. THOUGH THIS WILL NOT
GREATLY IMPACT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...IT WILL DIRECT
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE NATURE COAST ON THURSDAY WITH
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THERE.

ON FRIDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL FILL INTO FLORIDA FROM THE
ATLANTIC...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL BE EXPECTED MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A TUTT LOW WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY AND MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE APPROACHING SIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
LOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...30 PERCENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCES THE
DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER TERMINALS. IMPACTS ARE
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM OR LESS IN HEAVIER STORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE
WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PREVENT HUMIDITY PROBLEMS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINS FROM SEA BREEZE STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AGGRAVATE AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION. WITH A RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE MANATEE
RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA AND THE
PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA ARE ALL CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS CAN ALWAYS BE
FOUND AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TBW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  76  90 /  40  50  30  50
FMY  74  90  75  90 /  40  50  30  50
GIF  73  91  74  92 /  30  40  20  40
SRQ  75  88  76  91 /  50  50  30  50
BKV  72  90  72  92 /  40  50  30  40
SPG  77  86  78  89 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-
     LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...FLEMING
LONG TERM...COLSON
AVIATION...LEWIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
618 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-031600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
618 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE
GREATEST HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD OR EXPECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD TODAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS AND ALLOW
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WITH THE STORMS TODAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT AREA
BEACHES AS ONSHORE SWELLS CONTINUE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 5
FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

COLSON

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