Red Flag Warning 28, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
432 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLING IN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN...KEEPING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO
BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE NICEST DAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND COOL AIR ADVECTION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING/POSITIONING DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES NOTED LATE NEXT
WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO ARISE AS THE
00Z GFS THEN DRIVES THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HANGS THE BOUNDARY UP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THE BEST DYNAMIC
FORCING TO AID IN DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE...WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND KEEP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS FOR FORECAST
DETAILS...WILL NEED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WERE ADDED FROM TONIGHT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION SPEEDS FOR TAMPA
BAY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE STARTING AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
POLK...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR
EXTENDED CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...HIGH ERC VALUES...AND
WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR
MONDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  60  80  65 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  82  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  79  58  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  80  59  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  77  53  79  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  76  65  79  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR CHARLOTTE-LEE-POLK-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     MONDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...21/JELSEMA