Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2013

.NEAR TERM [This Afternoon through TOnight]...
Since this morning's updates, convective development has been
primarily concentrated from Apalachicola to Panama City, as well as
along the Atlantic sea breeze to near the Suwannee River. Therefore,
the areas of likely PoPs that were inserted earlier appear to still
be valid. We expect lingering evening convection to quickly diminish
between 02 and 04 UTC. Previous discussion below...

Some mid-upper level drying has occurred across the area over the
past 24 hours, with observed PWAT decreasing from 2.06" to 1.80" on
consecutive 12 UTC soundings at Tallahassee, which places us almost
directly on normal values for August. There is also a general lack
of strong synoptic or mesoscale forcing to focus convection, so
today should mark the return of a more typical summertime pattern.
Low-level flow (1000-700mb) on the morning sounding was SE at a
little over 10 knots, which would fall into the "regime 7" of our
local sea breeze climatology (usually marked by high coverage).
However, the flow is expected to back slowly during the daytime
hours to a more ESE/E direction (usually marked by lower coverage).
Therefore, we struck a middle ground with PoPs today in most areas,
which is similar to the previous forecast (40-50%). However, high
resolution models are indicating two areas that may see more
concentrated thunderstorms today: (1) in the western Panhandle from
around 18-22 UTC, or early to mid afternoon, and (2) in the Florida
Big Bend from 22-03 UTC due to storms advancing NW from the Atlantic
sea breeze. Therefore, likely PoPs were added in those locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday through Friday Night]...
The eastern extent of the upper level high pressure over our area
should continue to keep synoptic scale forcing weak and allow for
the seabreeze to be the main source of convection. Since seabreeze
convection generally gets focused along the coast, this means that
although the widespread flooding threat has subsided, there will
still be chances for additional rainfall over the Panhandle areas
which have already received excess rainfall this summer.
Temperatures will also be back to normal with highs in the low to
mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The long term pattern through the middle part of next week should
trend towards drier/more typical summer weather for the most part.
Saturday could be another active day with 50-60% chance of
showers/tstms around the region, with lower PoPs as we move into
next week.  We should see max temps in lower 90s for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with some MVFR-IFR possible in and near storms. TLH, ECP,
and VLD stand the best chance of seeing TSRA. We should see some low
CIGS or light fog (BR) develop at some of the terminals again
tonight, mainly after 09 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves should remain below headline criteria as we return
to a more typical summer pattern with surface high pressure over the
Atlantic that will shift from the mid-Atlantic to the S Atlantic
through the period. Winds 15 kts or less and waves 1-3 ft or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are expected over the next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding continues in the lower portion of several river
basins. Runoff from Southern Alabama and South Georgia will
continue to keep many points in the lower portions of the
Choctawhatchee, Chipola, Apalachicola, Ochlockonee, and
Withalcoochee basins in flood for some time. It is anticipated
that with relatively heavy rainfall across South Central Georgia
that additional sharp rises are expected in the Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Basins over the next 24 hours. For specific river
information, check out the AHPS page here:

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  91  72  92  72 / 60  40  30  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  75 / 30  40  30  30  20
Dothan        73  91  72  91  72 / 30  40  30  30  20
Albany        73  92  71  93  72 / 30  40  20  30  20
Valdosta      72  94  71  95  71 / 40  40  30  30  20
Cross City    72  92  71  92  71 / 60  40  30  30  20
Apalachicola  76  88  75  88  76 / 50  40  30  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Godsey