Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Tallahassee, FL

015 
WWUS52 KTAE 152212
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
612 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FLC029-152230-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-130915T2230Z/
DIXIE FL-
612 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DIXIE COUNTY...

AT 605 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST DIXIE 
COUNTY HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...RADAR PICTURES INDICATE THAT IT IS 
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
630 PM EDT. THIS STORM WAS NOW MOVING NORTH AROUND 6 MPH. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2938 8321 2942 8324 2942 8329 2947 8332
      2949 8336 2948 8337 2950 8341 2957 8341
      2966 8337 2956 8307 2938 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 095DEG 12KT 2948 8325

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2013

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
Isolated to scattered convection is still expected to develop late
this afternoon into the evening hours. So far, dry air aloft has
limited the CU field, but most of the available hi-res guidance
anticipated a late start to the convection and still develops
isolated to scattered activity late in the day. Fairly steep
mid-level lapse rates as seen on the 12z KTAE and KTBW soundings
could allow for a stronger storm or two as well, but nothing
widespread is expected. Convection could linger for a few hours
after sunset, but it should mostly be dissipated over land by
midnight. Over the coastal waters, convection could occur at any
time during the overnight hours, and some of the hi-res guidance
indicates some strong convective wind gusts are possible
offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday through Wednesday]...
A rather flat, east-west oriented 500 mb ridge will persist over the
Gulf Coast, so we don't expect much in the way of Q-G forcing.
However, the thermodynamics, though not extremely favorable, will be
sufficient to support stronger moist updrafts driven by mesoscale
forcing like sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. The NWP
guidance consensus PoP is generally 20 to 30%, which is near the
climatological value. High temperatures will be a few degrees above
climo (lower 90s as opposed to upper 80s), and lows will ne near
climo (around 70 deg).

&&

.LONG TERM [Wed night through next Sunday]
The GFS and ECMWF keep the stronger more amplified 500 mb flow well
to our north through the period. Our forecast area will be situated
to the east of a weak 500 mb ridge, though this may change by next
weekend. The GFS forecasts a weak frontal passage next Sunday or
Sunday night while the ECMWF shifts the ridge position off the
Southeast coast. Despite these differences, our temperature and PoP
forecast is unlikely to be affected that much. The PoP will be near
climo (generally in the 20-30% range), as will temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18z Monday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period outside of isolated to scattered convection this
afternoon into this evening. Some brief patchy fog and/or low clouds
could also occur for a few hours around dawn.

&&

.MARINE...
An interesting marine forecast is shaping up, beginning this
evening. While the large scale models show fairly low winds & seas,
the Convection Allowing Models (CAM) are forecasting gale force
winds to surge over Apalachee Bay this evening, as the FL east coast
sea breeze (and associated deep moist convection) emerge off the NW
FL coast. We don't forecast storm scale winds, but this could be a
cross between mesoscale and storm scale, which isn't uncommon this
time of year when the FL east coast sea breeze passes through in the
evening. We increased the winds and waves over the global model
values (between 00 UTC and 06 UTC), but keep them below advisory
levels as we suspect the CAM winds may be overdone. However, this
will have to be monitored closely this evening.

The next item of interest is the potential for higher surf (and rip
current risk) late tonight and Monday, as the forerunners (i.e.
longest period swell) from Ingrid reach the NW FL coast. Our local
surf algorithm has 3 to 4 ft breakers (with a few higher sets
possible) Monday, then gradually diminishing Monday night and
Tuesday. These swell will travel northeastward, while the smaller,
short-period waves will travel west.

Finally, winds and seas may reach exercise caution levels mid
week as yet another high pressure system builds along the U.S.
eastern seaboard and a broad low pressure system develops in the
NW Caribbean.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ample boundary layer moisture will support locally heavy rain
rates the next few days, but deep moist convection will be too
isolated to significantly impact local rivers. The rivers continue
to recede from this summer's frequent and heavy rains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  92  72  90  71 / 30  30  20  20  20
Panama City   75  89  76  90  75 / 30  30  20  20  10
Dothan        70  91  70  91  70 / 40  20  20  20  10
Albany        71  91  71  89  70 / 40  20  20  20  20
Valdosta      70  95  70  93  69 / 30  30  20  30  20
Cross City    69  92  70  91  69 / 20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  76  88  77  88  77 / 20  30  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
504 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FLZ012>014-112-152130-
CALHOUN FL-INLAND BAY FL-INLAND GULF FL-COASTAL BAY FL-
404 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BAY...CALHOUN AND
GULF COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

AT 356 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES EAST OF CALLAWAY...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHIPOLA PARK...OR ON THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SOUTHWEST CALHOUN
BORDER...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3037 8565 3050 8522 3014 8524 3008 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 157DEG 17KT 3020 8532

24-BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
523 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FLZ034-134-152215-
INLAND DIXIE FL-COASTAL DIXIE FL-
523 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

AT 517 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FOWLERS BLUFF...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
YELLOW JACKET...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 2950 8341 2959 8342 2962 8341 2973 8330
      2952 8307 2942 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 121DEG 14KT 2948 8314

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