Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
242 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
With little to no synoptic scale influence, the seabreeze has kicked
off this afternoon along the Big Bend coast as seen in the local
radar imagery. These isolated storms will continue to move inland
through the afternoon and dissipate around sunset. Temperatures
today will peak in the lower 90s and cool to the upper 60s-around 70
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Monday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences on Sat dominated by ridge
over Wrn 2/3rd and trough along Ern seaboard with a weakening
backdoor front sinking slowly SWD through our forecast area. This
upper pattern allows drier air to advect into GA/AL, less so over N
FL.

During the rest of the period, upstream ridge inches Ewd nudging
trough into Atlc with NWLY steering flow into our area. At surface,
reinforcing high over Carolinas is shunted Swd building Swwd to over
Nrn Gulf. So essentially we will have a nearly stacked ridge
weakening somewhat on Mon. This translates to drier NE flow moving
over the region with decreasing clouds and slightly cooler min and
normal Max temps. Will go with AOB 20% thru Sun then 20-30% on Mon.
Highs in low 90s. Lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences fairly benign dominated by deep
layer ridging over all but the Wrn states with high centered over
Srn TN Valley. At surface, high off mid-Atlc with ridge swwd across
NE Gulf region with ESE low level flow and helping to dissipate
frontal remnants over Cntrl GA into Atlc. Little change is expected
into Wed and this will advect drier air into our forecast area
keeping PoPs below climo. Then, a trough riding and intensifying Ewd
reaches Ern Canada and NE U.S. rapidly deepening down east coast
with ridge retrograding rapidly Wwd. By Fri aftn, base of trough
over GA flanked by ridge to our west and Atlc ridge to our east
placing local area in weakness. At surface, this serves to
progressively break down while digging upper trough drives next
albeit weak backdoor cold front into N/Cntrl GA/FL. All this
translates to modestly increasing moisture levels and weak synoptic
flow. Will go with 20% or less Tues thru Thurs then 20-30% on Fri.
Inland Highs around 90s on Tues and Wed then low 90s Thurs and
Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18z Saturday] VFR conditions should prevail through the
period. Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon,
but coverage is expected to be low near the terminals, so kept VCTS.
Some guidance is hinting at BR with 4-5 SM vsbys tomorrow morning at
DHN/ABY/VLD, but since we did not see that this morning, drier air
is moving in, and not all of the guidance was showing it, left it
out of the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite the expected "cold" front passage tonight & Saturday, we are
not expecting a big increase in winds and seas. In fact, they will
remain well below exercise caution levels through this weekend.
However, east winds are expected to increase early in the work
week as a much stronger area of high pressure builds down the
eastern Seaboard.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most of the area rivers are either below action stage or receding.
The exception was on the lower Suwannee River, where points below
Rock Bluff are nearing a broad crest. A stretch of fairly dry
weather is expected over the next several days, which will give
the local rivers some much-needed time to return toward normal
flows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  92  70  93  70 / 20  10  10  10  10
Panama City   74  88  75  89  74 / 10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        70  91  69  92  69 / 10  10   0  10  10
Albany        69  92  69  93  69 / 10  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      69  91  68  92  69 / 10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    70  92  69  93  70 / 30  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  75  87  75  87  75 / 10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Block/Walsh
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Block

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FLZ028-128-061945-
INLAND TAYLOR FL-COASTAL TAYLOR FL-
258 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

AT 254 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERRY...OR NEAR PINLAND...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
HEAR THE SOUND OF THUNDER TO TAKE COVER.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2980 8341 2981 8360 2984 8363 2986 8364
      2988 8365 2989 8366 2991 8367 3013 8361
      3011 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 009DEG 7KT 2999 8352

25-CAMP