Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
With the relatively dry airmass in place over the region and minimal
convection expected this afternoon, expect a dry forecast overnight
with low temperatures in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Monday]...
A quite familiar theme to this summer, yet another Upper level trof
will become reestablished across the SE U.S. on Sat. and Sun., but
at least this time, conditions are not expected to be nearly as
unsettled as the last few events. Deep layer moisture is not nearly
as high as the past few weeks. as blended TPWs (sat. estimated
PWATS) are only peaking in the 1.5" range where the moisture from
the trof will be advecting from. Therefore, only expect modest
increases in PoPs and near climo temps.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The extended period may actually begin with a brief period of Upper
Level ridging lingering through much of the day on Tuesday, before
this relatively hot and dry ridge retrogrades back into TX. This
will allow the all too familiar Upper Level trough to become
reestablished down the eastern seaboard, spelling a likely return to
above normal PoPs and QPF across the CWA for much of the period.
Thus far, guidance temps are coming in quite warm, but have a
feeling Max temps may need to be reduced over time depending on how
unsettled conditions become.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
KABY and KVLD may see a brief period of MVFR vsby around sunrise.
Winds will remain light through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate at the surface with
generally light winds and low seas continuing through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are still several river points lingering in either action
stage or minor flood stage. However, additional rainfall over the
next couple of days will be quite minimal at best, with no further
contributions expected to increased flow. The most up to date,
specific river forecast information can be found on our local AHPS
page at

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  93  70  92  71 / 10  30  30  30  20
Panama City   78  88  74  88  75 / 10  30  30  30  20
Dothan        72  89  68  91  70 / 10  40  40  30  20
Albany        73  92  69  91  70 / 10  30  30  30  20
Valdosta      72  94  69  92  69 / 20  40  30  40  20
Cross City    72  92  70  89  69 / 20  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  77  88  74  86  75 / 10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Gould
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Gould