Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through tonight]...
Main forecast concern through the evening and overnight hours will
be the approach of the MCS currently located over central Alabama.
Northwesterly steering flow along with developing cold pool
associated with the MCS should allow it to accelerate southward
through the afternoon and into the early evening. Areas of southeast
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle have been able to heat into the
upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. Combined with dewpoints in
the mid and upper 70s, this is yielding surface-based CAPE values
well above 3000 j/kg. With the organized nature of the approaching
MCS, may see some damaging wind gust as it moves through the area.
Severe threat over the eastern half of the forecast area should be
lower, owing to the remnant cold pool over SW Georgia and ongoing
afternoon convection over the Big Bend.  Once the MCS moves
offshore, PoPs should diminish for the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Thursday night]...
The axis of the upper trough will be just to our east through the
short term period with a few more upper level impulses poised to
affect the local area. The current timing of the impulses would
yield a fairly active day (50%) for convection for all zones
Wednesday and our easternmost zones Thursday as models show a much
drier airmass in the mid-levels filtering in from west to east. With
the drier airmass and less cloud cover, max temps may reach the mid
90s most inland areas Thursday. Otherwise, temps will be near
seasonal levels through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through next Tuesday]...
The overall upper level pattern will show a ridge over the western
CONUS and troughing over the east. Friday, our CWA will continue to
reside on the backside of the east coast trough and we should get a
brief break between shortwaves. A fairly strong shortwave will
translate out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi
Valley and sharpen as well as reposition the trough axis just to our
west over the weekend. The most active day for convection appears to
on Sunday when the trough axis reaches its greatest amplitude along
with a few impulses and deep layer moisture returning to the FA.
Thereafter, the trough will slowly deamplify and may allow the ridge
to build into the local region early next week. PoPs will be below
seasonal levels (10-30%) Friday gradually returning to normal
(40-50%) Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will be at or below
seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation (Through 18Z Wednesday)...
Most showers and thunderstorms in our region are currently located
over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but a few are beginning to develop
over inland areas.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
slightly increase in coverage this afternoon and could impact all
terminals, but coverage should not be as widespread as in previous
days. However, an MCS is moving through central MS and AL, and could
move into our region between 00Z-06Z Wednesday. DHN is most likely
to be impacted by this feature, and IFR or LIFR conditions may occur
as this cluster of storms moves southeastward into our area. This
feature should dissipate by the early morning Wednesday, but low
ceilings could cause IFR or LIFR conditions to linger through
sunrise.  VFR or MVFR conditions should generally prevail for the
rest of the period with lower chances of precipitation from 12Z-18Z
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure to the south and a trough of low pressure to the
north, light to moderate westerly flow is forecast to continue over
the coastal waters through the end of the week. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds are expected to remain below headline
criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A few rivers still remain at or near flood stage. Isolated
instances of flash flooding or low land flooding will remain a
concern near any stronger rain cores, especially near urban areas.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through much of this
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   90  73  93  73  94 / 70  70  50  30  30
PANAMA CITY   88  77  89  78  93 / 70  70  50  30  30
DOTHAN        90  73  91  73  94 / 70  60  50  30  20
ALBANY        90  74  93  73  94 / 60  60  50  30  30
VALDOSTA      89  73  95  73  93 / 70  70  50  30  50
CROSS CITY    88  73  91  74  92 / 60  70  50  30  50
APALACHICOLA  86  78  90  77  91 / 60  70  50  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Short Term...Barry
Near Term...Camp
Marine...DVD
Aviation/Fire Wx...Camp/Lahr
Long Term...Barry
Hydrology...DVD

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