Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Tallahassee, FL

691 
WWUS52 KTAE 180127
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
827 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

ALC045-067-069-180137-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-130718T0145Z/
DALE AL-HOUSTON AL-HENRY AL-
827 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...NORTH
CENTRAL HOUSTON AND EAST CENTRAL DALE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3120 8543 3149 8562 3154 8531 3132 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 068DEG 9KT 3142 8544

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep easterly flow continued across our forecast area this
afternoon, advecting dry air (with Precip Water values 10-20% below
climatology) across our region. Based on the limited CU growth and
sparse shower/thunderstorm coverage so far, it appears that the
drier NWP guidance from 00 UTC was correct, so we lowered the PoP to
20% or less for the remainder of this afternoon. Much of the
guidance forecasts an area of showers and thunderstorms to develop
well to our north (near a weak surface trough in the Carolinas)
later today, then translate south-southwestward this evening.
Therefore we have a 20-30% PoP for our northern most zones from 00
to 06 UTC this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A mid/upper level low centered over the central Gulf will slide
northwest to a position over coastal Louisiana/Texas by Friday
night. At the surface, the Southeast will be on the far western
reaches of high pressure centered over the Atlantic. Rounding the
periphery of the ridge will be several waves of low pressure,
forecast to move generally from south to north out of the Gulf and
affect the Tri-State region. Although several areas of enhanced
vorticity associated with the upper low are forecast to pass over
the region both Thursday and Friday, Thursday appears to be too
dry for much in the way of mentionable precipitation. The
situation changes on Friday when deep layer trajectories will be
oriented in more of a southerly fashion, away from dry air source
over the western Atlantic and from a much more tropical source
over the northern Caribbean. Thus, expect rain to spread from
south to north through the day associated with a surface wave, and
linked upper level vorticity maxima.

Due to the pattern above, the short term will feature near to
slightly above average high temperatures on Thursday,
transitioning to below average on Friday. Overnight lows will
remain very near climatological normals as most rain should remain
offshore each night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Tuesday]...

Through the extended period the previously mentioned mid/upper low
will move away from the Gulf to the west, with a ridge building in
behind, and a trough eventually sliding into the southeast from
the north. At the surface, flow will transition from southerly to
more of a west, southwest direction by Tuesday. Rain chances will
remain near to above average for the extended period due in part
to an extended period of upper level diffluent flow from the
shifting pattern. With plentiful moisture in the lower and middle
levels of the atmosphere, the upper level diffluence will likely
be assisted by some sort of disturbed seabreeze influence each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions will be the rule through the period, outside of
isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening. The relatively strong
east winds aloft will have any SHRA that develop moving quickly to
the west, resulting in only very brief periods of MVFR vis and/or
cigs. Any SHRA that occur will dissipate shortly after sunset,
followed by fair weather and light E-NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak nocturnal easterly surges should come to an end after
tonight as winds will shift to a more southerly direction. Winds
will stay elevated, but below headline criteria through Friday as
weak waves of low pressure are forecast to move out of the
southern Gulf. By the weekend, high pressure will take a more firm
hold of our waters and allow winds and seas to calm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A few area river points remain in flood this afternoon. Most
notably, the Choctawhatchee near Bruce which is forecast to
remain in moderate flood stage into the weekend. However, all area
rivers and streams are in, and will continue to remain in a downward
trend. Significant rainfall is not expected through Thursday, when
rain chances will increase once again by the weekend. However, at
this time a widespread heavy rain event is not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   94  71  93  71  89 / 20  10  20  20  50
Panama City   90  75  89  75  85 / 10  10  20  20  50
Dothan        92  72  92  72  90 / 10  20  20  20  40
Albany        92  72  93  72  90 / 20  10  20  10  40
Valdosta      93  69  94  72  91 / 20  10  20  20  50
Cross City    91  70  91  71  86 / 20  10  30  30  60
Apalachicola  88  75  87  75  85 / 10  10  20  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan