Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
The regional surface analysis from 20 UTC showed a cold front
entering the western portions of our forecast area, accompanied by
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Although there wasn't
much lightning, unusually strong winds not far above the surface
were mixing down as strong gusts. (The 2030 UTC VAD Wind Profile
from Fort Rucker- KEOX, had winds of 60 KT at only 2,000 ft AGL)
The threat of marginally damaging wind gusts (around 50 KT) will
likely continue into this evening, though all of the latest NWP
guidance indicates a downward trend in the overall threat after
sunset. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out, given the
impressive shear magnitudes from 0 to 1 km, but the main threat is
straight line wind gusts. It's doubtful that damaging winds will
make it all the way to our eastern zones, though the rain probably
will.

In addition to the severe storm potential, we will be dealing with
other potential threats as well. Wind gusts outside of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to reach 35 to 45 MPH, especially in
those areas that get some breaks in the clouds. These gusts will
diminish with sunset. Strong onshore winds have cause high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal. All
these threats will subside later tonight as the cold front passes
through and cause a wind shift to the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
A quiet weather pattern is in store for this period, as a cool,
dry continental air dominates the weather at the surface. Highs
will be much cooler Thursday, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A light freeze is possible Thursday and Friday nights, but we will
late the next shift(s) take a closer look at this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The global models are forecasting a broad, mean trough in the
500 mb height field over the eastern CONUS for much of the period,
with a ridge possibly developing over the Southeast U.S. on Wed.
Much of our local weather will be dominated by an area of high
pressure at the surface, and a continental airmass. We expect
generally fair weather and near-average high temperatures, and
slightly below-average lows.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 21Z Wednesday]...
Mostly MVFR ceilings dominate our terminals this afternoon, with
high end IFR ongoing at KECP. Expect low end MVFR to high end IFR,
ahead, within, and just behind the front. As the front clears from
west to east, restrictions will lift under a mid level cloud deck,
and skies will eventually clear by dawn. Winds will be gusty for the
remainder of the afternoon, gusting near 40 knots at KDHN and KECP,
and around 30 knots elsewhere. Winds will shift from south to west
with the passage of the front, but remain elevated near 10 knots for
the remainder of the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
So far winds have not reached Gale-force over the coastal waters,
but they still might in a few hours, given the gusts being
observed at upstream buoys and oil platforms. These gusts will
diminish later this evening, but advisory conditions will persist
well into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critically low relative humidities will exist tomorrow afternoon.
Couple this with strong transport winds, and subsequent high
dispersions and Red Flag conditions become possible. Whether or not
a warning is issued will depend upon future ERC values, and will be
decided later tonight. For now, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for all of north Florida. These same conditions may exist on Friday,
and possibly Saturday as relative humidity values remain low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain is expected through tonight, but major flooding is
unlikely because of the progressive nature of the cold front.
However, localized flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas
is possible, simply because of the volume of water with the
frontal rain band. QPF amounts will generally range from 2 inches
in the northwest portion of our forecast area, to half an inch at
Tallahassee. While this may cause some sharp rises at some of the
local rivers, they will likely remain below action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   42  60  30  64  28 / 90   0  10   0   0
Panama City   42  58  40  62  36 / 70   0  10   0   0
Dothan        37  59  36  59  29 / 70   0  10   0   0
Albany        39  59  33  59  28 / 90   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      43  59  32  62  28 / 90   0  10   0   0
Cross City    47  62  30  67  28 / 60   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  43  57  39  61  36 / 80   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.
     WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.
AL...WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton
     Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
     60 NM.
     GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST this evening for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&

NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...Fournier
AVIATION/FIRE WX...Harrigan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-312345-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
645 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013 /545 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT SE ALA AND A FEW
ADJACENT COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND AND WEST HALF OF FL
PANHANDLE UNTIL 1 AM EST...

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO LATE THIS EVENING...

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL BAY AND GULF AND FOR SOUTH WALTON COUNTIES...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER 10 PM EST FOR THE MARINE WATERS...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ADVISED UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE PASSES
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK

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