Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Once again we have a large area of moderate to heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms along the central to eastern Gulf coast,
although the primary axis of the activity is displaced a bit to the
west of the previous several days. The strongest RAP analyzed 850mb
moisture transport vectors are from the southeast from near buoy
42036, to near Cape San Blas, to southeast Alabama as of 18 UTC.
These are projected to focus in the western part of our area around
21 UTC before weakening into the evening. Therefore, we are
expecting rain to increase in our western zones over the next few
hours, with obvious concerns of additional rainfall exacerbating
flooding in Walton, Holmes, Bay, and Washington counties. More
scattered convection is expected to the east in a more unstable
environment. High-resolution models hint at a bit of a lull in the
evening again, with additional showers and storms redeveloping after
06 UTC in the western part of our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Sunday Night]...
The upper level trof bringing the deep layer of SWrly flow of moist
Gulf air into the area will continue to lift NEward Saturday. This
will help weaken the pressure gradient aloft as well as further
decay the weak front to our west currently over Wrn MS. With the
anomalous pattern shifting, we're adjusting closer to our normal
seabreeze pattern, especially over the Ern part of our forecast
area. Weak low pressure at lower levels in the Nrn GoMex will
continue to help with forcing for showers and thunderstorms,
bringing more rain to the area. As the low level forcing continues
to weaken, the intensity will not be as high as earlier this week.
Additionally, with 850-700mb flow, storms will continue to move
through more quickly (ex. today's movement as opposed to Wed/Thurs
when storms would train over an area). CAM guidance is showing areas
of an additional 2-3" of rain is possible tomorrow over the Wrn half
of the forecast area, but if storms move quickly as expected the
rain will be distributed over a larger area. Flooding will still be
a concern as it takes time for basins to recede, especially after
the amount of rain we've seen. However, the threat of new additional
flooding is low.

The upper level pattern will continue to shift back to a less
amplified pattern Sunday, but weak low pressure over the Nrn Gulf
will continue the chances for potential rain in the areas that need
it the least. Similar to Saturday, the area will see still more rain
on Sunday, but not in the excessive amounts seen earlier this week,
so continued flooding will be an ongoing concern, but the threat of
new additional flooding will still be low.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
Weak ridging aloft and at the surface will begin to build Ewd as the
pattern deamplifies. Seasonal PoPs (around 40%) expected to take
over early next week. Around mid-week (Wed/Thurs), a weak UL trof
will swing through the Great Lakes region and a TUTT will be in the
Ern Gulf, which will create another disturbed pattern for our area.
Confidence is lower that far out in the run, but PoPs Thurs and Fri
around 40-50%. Temps will return to seasonal norms with highs in the
low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18z Saturday] The main axis of tropical moisture has
shifted more to the west today but will still cause persistent rain
and low ceilings at ECP and DHN. ABY, VLD, and TLH will be at VFR;
however afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop from east
to west along the east coast sea breeze. These storms could produce
gusty winds and reduced visibilities to 1SM.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves are still slightly elevated over waters from
Ochlockonee River to Destin, so small craft should continue to
exercise caution through tomorrow morning. Winds and seas will
gradually fall over the weekend and should return to our
summertime norm by early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The flash flood threat continues across the western half of our
forecast area through Saturday evening, with the greatest threat
across the Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall amounts of 2
to 3 inches are likely in the western half of watch area tomorrow,
but 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Panhandle.

On area rivers, the St. Marks near Newport has risen to moderate
flood stage, but appears to have crested. The Apalachicola River
at Blountstown is also forecast to rise to minor flood stage this
evening. The Aucilla River near Lamont is expected to reach minor
flood stage Saturday morning with a crest Sunday afternoon. The
Choctawhatchee River has crested just above minor flood stage at
Newton. At Caryville, the river should crest about a foot below
moderate flood stage Saturday night. Downstream at Bruce, the
river has risen to moderate flood stage and is forecast to
continue to rise to major flood stage by early next work week. The
Shoal River at Mossy Head has peaked at slightly above 14.1 ft
and has already fallen back below minor flood stage. As more rain
falls across the area, we will continue to monitor the area
rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  86  72  90  71 / 50  60  30  40  20
Panama City   76  84  75  87  75 / 70  70  40  50  30
Dothan        71  83  71  88  71 / 70  70  40  60  30
Albany        72  87  72  90  72 / 60  50  30  50  30
Valdosta      72  88  70  90  71 / 40  50  30  30  20
Cross City    72  87  70  92  70 / 50  50  30  30  20
Apalachicola  78  85  75  86  75 / 70  70  40  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Walsh/Gould
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Moore/Wool

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