Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2013

...Severe Storms Possible into this evening...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Very unstable airmass this afternoon is fueling widespread
convection across much of the forecast area. With the Big Bend
worked over earlier today, the primary focus for severe weather
into this evening will be across SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and
possibly the Florida Panhandle. Most of the activity has been of
the pulse severe variety. However, a southward moving outflow
boundary moving into SE Alabama is providing a focus for slightly
more organized activity. Damaging wind gusts will continue to be
the primary concern. While some of the hi-res guidance suggests
more strong storms overnight, the current widespread activity
should the stabilize the atmosphere significantly by late
evening. This should reduce the coverage and intensity of any
overnight convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Upper trough axis (currently along the eastern seaboard) will
retrograde to the west tonight into Saturday, with the axis
ending up west of the forecast area. In addition, a frontal
boundary will drop south into the area by Saturday and stall
across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This will create a
favorable pattern for convection, especially east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, with a very moist airmass and
weak shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough. As with
Friday morning, the convection may get an early start along the
coast, so will have relatively high PoPs in place throughout the
day. Conditions will change little by Sunday, with the eastern
half of the area favored once again.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
Unseasonably deep trough will be in place over the eastern half of
the country through next week. This will keep moist and deep
southwesterly flow across the forecast area with enhanced rain
chances for most of the week. Periods of more widespread rain will
likely be governed by timing of weak upper/lower level features,
which are difficult to predict this far out. Therefore, will
continue with a general forecast of likely PoPs for the eastern
half of area early in the week, with the higher PoPs spreading
west by midweek as the upper level trough slowly retrogrades.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...
Scattered thunderstorms are currently firing in our Georgia and
Alabama counties, putting ABY, DHN, and VLD at the greatest risk for
reduced visibility this afternoon.  IFR conditions could occur in
these storms.  Also, around 21Z today, the line of thunderstorms
currently in Alabama will move into our region and impact DHN and
ABY in the early evening hours. This line will contain strong to
potentially severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.
After the thunderstorms pass through, patchy fog is possible at
all terminals early tomorrow morning around sunset. More scattered
thunderstorms are possible tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly flow will be on the increase through the weekend as
the Bermuda high strengthens over the western Atlantic and a
frontal boundary approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Expect
exercise caution conditions to develop overnight and continue
through most of the weekend. Brief periods of advisory level
winds will be possible late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected due to above average relative
humidity values throughout the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A wet weather pattern will be in place through the
weekend and into early next week. Widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall
amounts are anticipated through Monday, with isolated higher
amounts. With no area rivers in flood or action stage, no
river flooding is expected. However, locally heavy rainfall may
cause flooding of some urban and/or low-lying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  90  74  89  72 / 70  70  50  70  40
Panama City   79  87  79  87  77 / 70  60  50  60  30
Dothan        75  92  72  91  71 / 80  60  40  50  30
Albany        73  91  73  89  71 / 80  60  40  60  40
Valdosta      75  89  73  88  72 / 70  70  50  70  50
Cross City    75  88  74  88  73 / 40  70  60  70  50
Apalachicola  79  86  79  86  77 / 70  60  60  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey/Lahr
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Godsey/Lahr
MARINE...Godsey/Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey/Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Camp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MAYHAW              31.17N 84.89W
06/28/2013                   MILLER             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED ON HOUSE ON MAYHAW RD.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
423 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE DOERUN             31.27N 83.86W
06/28/2013                   COLQUITT           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 LARGE OAK TREES UPROOTED ON POWER LINES NEAR HWY 33 AND
            GREENE DAIRY RD.

&&

JSE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

GAZ120>123-282115-
RANDOLPH GA-CALHOUN GA-QUITMAN GA-CLAY GA-
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
CALHOUN...CLAY...QUITMAN AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

AT 433 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CUTHBERT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ALSO...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0)
9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 8453 3150 8482 3180 8505 3189 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 303DEG 25KT 3180 8489

38-GODSEY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
519 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE GENEVA            31.09N 85.85W
06/28/2013                   GENEVA             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS 4 VEHICLES ON THOMPSON DRIVE.

&&

HARRIGAN