River Flood Warning 70, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
938 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A broad upper level trough covers much of the eastern two thirds of
the CONUS while deep layer ridging exists over the desert southwest.
Our CWA is in a position between the trough and ridge such that we
are in a northwest flow regime. In these northwest flow regimes
during the summer months, it is common to see MCV or MCS development
during peak afternoon heating. Although there were a few MCVs
present earlier in the afternoon in Alabama, they have since
diminished. Also recent satellite imagery and radar loops all
indicate a downward trend in shower and thunderstorm activity
currently ongoing. This notion is further supported in the latest
runs of our local WRF and the HRRR. Later this evening and into
the overnight hours the current thinking is that with the
exception of a few showers and thunderstorms, especially over the
coastal waters, most of the activity has diminished. Therefore
after about midnight have limited PoPs to around 30%, with the
greatest chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms being in the
predawn hours over our coastal waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]... In the wake of the
MCV and a weak surface trough, we will see some drier air moving
in especially in the mid layers by Thursday afternoon. PoPs will
be tapered slight to good chance from NW to SE. This relatively
dry period is not expected to last long as another shortwave is
forecast to dive out of the Central Plains and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley Friday through Friday night. This will carve
out a sharp trough just west of our CWA placing our region back in
the deep moist west to southwest flow for the upcoming weekend.
PoPs will be well below climo Friday (20% or less) for all zones
except 30% extreme southeast Big Bend. With the increased
insolation and drier airmass expect near to above seasonal temps
both days.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The axis of the longwave trough will continue to extend south from a
closed low over the Great Lakes region to the northeast Gulf through
Sunday. The trough will may deamplify just enough early next week to
allow weak ridging to build in across the Gulf of Mexico and the
Florida peninsula. PoPs will return to seasonal levels (40-50%) for
most zones through the period with max temps returning to near or
just below climo.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Beginning 00Z Friday] Rain showers and thunderstorms should be
diminishing within the next couple of hours at all terminals.
After midnight, MVFR CIGs should develop at all terminals with
IFR/LIFR conditions expected in the predawn hours. A couple of
hours after sunrise any remaining CIGs should burn off giving way
to VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. With the
exception of ECP in the morning, showers and thunderstorms are not
expected during the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the south and a trough of low pressure to the
north, will allow light to moderate west to southwest flow to
continue across the local waters at least through the weekend, Outside
of thunderstorms. Although winds will remain below cautionary
levels, current observations from offshore buoys have indicated
wave heights of 4 to 5 feet in our offshore waters. Therefore
small crafts should exercise caution in offshore waters
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A few rivers still remain at or near flood stage. Isolated
instances of flash flooding or low land flooding will remain a
concern near any stronger rain cores, especially near urban areas.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through much of this
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  93  72  96  73 / 80  40  10  20  20
Panama City   78  92  77  94  77 / 80  40  20  10  20
Dothan        72  94  72  96  72 / 80  20  10  10  20
Albany        73  94  72  96  72 / 80  30  10  20  20
Valdosta      72  93  71  96  72 / 50  40  10  20  20
Cross City    73  91  72  94  73 / 50  50  20  30  20
Apalachicola  77  89  74  93  77 / 70  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Near Term/Aviation/Marine...Navarro/Moore
Short Term/Long Term...Barry
Fire Weather...Camp/Lahr
Hydrology...DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

FLZ016-017-GAZ156-157-242300-
GRADY GA-LEON FL-DECATUR GA-GADSDEN FL-
611 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR...
GADSDEN...GRADY AND LEON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

AT 610 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF WHIGHAM...OR NEAR CALVARY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3041 8415 3070 8451 3086 8439 3071 8408
      3067 8408 3068 8401 3067 8400 3059 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 303DEG 25KT 3071 8432

11-MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
617 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

FLZ012-112-242245-
INLAND BAY FL-COASTAL BAY FL-
517 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BAY COUNTY...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

AT 512 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF PANAMA CITY BEACH...OR NEAR WEST BAY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES WEST OF LYNN HAVEN BY 545 PM CDT.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. SUCH WINDS CAN KNOCK DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.

ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3041 8590 3041 8588 3044 8586 3043 8541
      3012 8554 3010 8559 3009 8555 3003 8557
      3005 8560 3006 8565 3010 8571 3030 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 302DEG 15KT 3032 8586

9-FOURNIER

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