Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

376 
WWUS82 KTAE 020010
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
710 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY FOR LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EVENING FOR BAY AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

FLZ017-027-127-020930-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130202T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0004.130202T1600Z-130203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0006.130202T1600Z-130203T0000Z/
LEON-INLAND WAKULLA-COASTAL WAKULLA-
710 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH
ERC...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND: NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM VALUES 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

* ERC VALUES: 30 TO 35.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FLZ010-012-112-020930-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130202T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0004.130202T1600Z-130203T0000Z/
WASHINGTON-INLAND BAY-COASTAL BAY-
610 PM CST FRI FEB 1 2013

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* WIND: NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM VALUES 23 TO 27 PERCENT.

* ERC VALUES: 30 TO 34.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FLZ007>009-011-013>016-018-019-026-028-029-034-108-114-115-118-
128-134-020115-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130202T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL GULF-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
710 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013 /610 PM CST FRI FEB 1 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL OF NORTH FLORIDA...


$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Surface data from early this morning show high pressure in place
across the southern portion of the region. A reinforcing cold front
is not far away, moving across the Mid South. At 2 am ET, this cold
front was just entering North Central Alabama and Eastern
Mississippi. This boundary will move through the region today
resulting in a brief increase in northwesterly winds. This will be a
dry cold front with no rain in the forecast today. Temperatures will
still warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region, which
is only a few degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Little change from the previous fcst, as the SE U.S. will be
dominated by the Mean Upper Level Trough which will begin to flatten
out a bit by the end of the period. At the Sfc, High Pressure will
be the rule with another weak Cold Frontal passage on Sunday. This
front is expected to be dry for the Tri-State region as well, with
any isolated showers to our north expected to dissipate ahead of
the front. As for temperatures, tonight will be the greatest
concern, as the Ridge building into the region today will settle
in just to our NE tonight, with a piece of it building in right
overhead on Saturday. That said, still expect very light to near
calm NE winds overnight which should allow for good radiational
cooling. Lows should range from the mid to upper 20s over much of
the interior (tweaked TLH down to 26 degrees, with lows around 30
expected in downtown Tallahassee), with lower to mid 30s nearing
the coast. This should result in a long duration light freeze away
from the coast, with a few of the normally colder locations
possibly nearing a short duration Hard Freeze. Will leave the
current Freeze Watch as is, but did pull patchy frost from the
grids due to expected large T-Td spreads. Lows on Sunday morning
are expected to remain above freezing, except for a few spots
along the Suwannee River Valley. High Temps will continue to
gradually moderate, with mid to upper 60s expected by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
Mostly zonal flow will dominate on the southern periphery of
broad eastern U.S. troughing through the period. A weak impulse
will pass overhead late on Monday, however, dry air will limit the
impacts to passing high clouds with no chance for rain. A slightly
stronger mid/upper wave will approach towards the end of the
period. At this time, little to no rain is expected with this
disturbance either. Overall, the period will be dominated by dry
conditions and near or slightly above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
period. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected this
afternoon as a dry cold front moves through the region. Near calm
winds are expected tonight with clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
With High Pressure remaining in control, with just a couple of dry
Cold Fronts moving through the Coastal Waters through Sunday, light
to moderate winds and seas are expected through the weekend. By
early next week, winds and seas will drop to very low levels for
this time of year, as the next High Pressure Ridge builds in and
remains overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and high dispersions will support red flag conditions
in North Florida today. The required red flag criteria for Alabama
and Georgia will not be met today. Relative humidity values will be
even drier on Saturday with minimum values around 15 percent.
However, because winds will be lighter, red flag conditions are only
anticipated in a few counties in North Florida. A moistening trend
begins on Sunday when red flag potential comes to an end.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Although there were a few minor rises on some area rivers from
Wednesday's rainfall (mainly across northern and western portions of
the region), no significant rises in river levels are expected over
the next several days with a dry forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  26  64  35  68 /  0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   63  35  61  46  66 /  0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        56  26  62  40  64 /  0   0   0  10  10
Albany        56  25  61  37  64 /  0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      62  26  63  35  67 /  0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    67  29  65  33  69 /  0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  64  35  59  43  65 /  0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland
     Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland
     Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
     Walton-Washington.

     FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM EST this morning for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

     FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland
     Wakulla-Leon-Washington.

GA...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM EST this morning for Berrien-Brooks-
     Cook-Lanier-Lowndes.

     FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Gould

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
710 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-020015-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
710 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013 /610 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE BEACHES OF BAY AND GULF COUNTIES...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. NO RAIN
IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

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