High Surf Advisory 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
929 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2013

...Flash Flooding Remains Possible...

.DISCUSSION...
The 00 UTC regional surface analysis showed a broad low pressure
system in the north central Gulf of Mexico (non-tropical), a
quasi-stationary, decaying frontal system from northeast AL to
this low, and a subtle east-west oriented trough off the FL
Panhandle coast. This trough separated more southerly winds to its
south from east-northeast winds to its north (over land), which
could help increase 0-1km bulk shear magnitudes, especially as a
low level southerly jet develops overnight. However, the latest
GFS and NAM models appear a bit overdone with this feature (with
the GFS forecasting 50 KT), based on recent observation trends and
other NWP guidance like the ECMWF. Although this sheared profile would
indicate a threat for isolated tornadoes tonight, the Convection
Allowing Models (CAM) are not that impressive with their forecast
Updraft Helicity (UH) values (generally 50 units or less). The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has backed off a bit on the threat of
severe storms tonight (from 15% down to 5%, within 25 miles of a
point), which seems reasonable given the lack of mesocyclones over
the past several hours, and the CAM guidance's lack of high UH
values.

Although the severe storm threat appears to have lessened, we
remain concerned about the potential for flash flooding. Radar
estimates from the Tallahassee WSR-88D Radar show a few narrow
streaks of 7 to 13 inches since Monday, though most of this
occurred since last night. Such localized bands of intense rain
remain possible overnight, which could cause flash flooding,
especially in urban areas, or areas that have already received
extremely heavy rain. We are forecasting an additional 3 to
5 inches of rain from tonight through Friday morning, with
isolated amounts of a foot possible. We can't predict where such
heavy rain bands will set up, which is why our flash flood watch
currently includes our entire forecast area. Because we think the
greatest flood threat is over the western half of our forecast
area, we may be able to trim some of our eastern counties off the
watch later tonight or Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be gradually on the increase out of the south
and southeast during the next 24 to 36 hours, but have trimmed back
the intensity of the expected Small Craft Advisory conditions to
lower end levels, instead of the near Gale conditions which seemed
possible earlier with one model. Winds and seas will then begin to
diminish a bit over the weekend (likely to below headline levels),
but it appears as though it will be at least several days before
they return to more typical low summertime levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday] Very wet fcst to continue across the
terminals for at least the next 24-48 hrs, so we can continue to
expect variable conditions, mainly from MVFR to IFR in and out of
Cigs, TSTMS with Low Vis, and hopefully a few periods of VFR as
well, so it won't end up a total washout for the 4th of July.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 21 UTC, there was still a fairly significant flooding
situation over the western part of our Florida panhandle zones -
particularly in Holmes and Washington Counties where numerous
roads have been closed and some buildings have even been impacted.
Based on dual-pol radar rainfall estimates, a band of 5-10 inches
of storm total rainfall extends across central Holmes, western
Washington, and western Bay counties, with much of that having
fallen since midnight. Therefore, the greatest risk of flooding
over the next 12 hours will continue to be across our four
westernmost FL zones: Walton, Holmes, Washington, and Bay. Given
saturated soils, any additional rainfall will be efficiently
converted into runoff. River gage VRNF1 (Holmes Creek near Vernon)
showed a sharp rise in the morning, although the rate of rise has
decreased recently. The site-specific model for that location
suggests that additional rainfall would push the creek close to,
or just above levels seen in the late February 2013 flooding. This
should be fairly typical of a lot of the creeks and streams across
the four aforementioned counties - with continued rises through
the Fourth of July (tomorrow).

There has been a lot of rainfall in the Choctawhatchee River basin
in general, and as this drains into the main river we should see
rises - particularly at Caryville and Bruce where flooding is now
forecast. Beyond this small area, flooding issues have been more
isolated, but as rain continues tonight and into tomorrow other
areas may develop. One area that would be favored for flooding
would be Leon, Jefferson, and Wakulla counties which have already
received heavy rainfall over the past 1-2 days.

The Flood Watch has been converted to a Flash Flood Watch due to
the very heavy rain rates across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  82  71  90 / 100  80  40  60
Panama City   77  80  76  86 / 100  90  50  70
Dothan        72  79  71  86 / 100  90  50  70
Albany        73  82  72  89 / 100  70  40  60
Valdosta      74  85  71  90 / 100  60  30  50
Cross City    75  86  71  92 /  60  60  40  40
Apalachicola  77  81  75  87 / 100  90  40  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
     Walton-Washington.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through Friday afternoon FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Thursday FOR Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Friday FOR Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

AVIATION/MARINE...Gould
HYDRO...Lamers
REST of DISCUSSION...Fournier

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

FLZ027-115-127-040700-
COASTAL WAKULLA FL-COASTAL FRANKLIN FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-
212 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN AND
WAKULLA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

AT 207 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF CRAWFORDVILLE...OR NEAR SHELL POINT...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINS...TREES CAN BE FELLED MUCH EASIER WITH SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

LAT...LON 2990 8444 2994 8450 3000 8452 3003 8458
      3010 8466 3022 8468 3026 8474 3029 8473
      3030 8425 3027 8424 3027 8408 3009 8407
      3006 8416 3008 8424 3005 8430 3001 8435
      2991 8432 2989 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 165DEG 25KT 3008 8433

15-HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 AM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 AM     HEAVY RAIN       INLET BEACH             30.28N 86.01W
07/04/2013  M14.74 INCH      WALTON             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RAINFALL TOTAL IN ROUGHLY 26 HOURS. RELAYED BY WJHG-TV
            METEOROLOGIST.

&&

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