Frost Advisory 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
After a very chilly start to the morning, with widespread freezing
temperatures reported across all inland stations, the gradual warm
up will finally start today. High pressure situated just to the
north of the area will keep skies clear with temperatures warming
into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon. Still will have a
little bit of a breeze, resulting in it feeling cool this
afternoon. Note that these afternoon high temperatures are around
10 to 15 degrees below normal for late March.

The overnight lows are also expected to be a few degrees warmer
compared to this morning, but still bottom out in the low to mid
30s away from the coast, which is also around 15 degrees below
average. There is a possibility that some locations could reach
the freezing mark tonight, but due to the uncertainty and the
expected short duration, no freeze products were issued at this
time. This will have to be reevaluated with the next set of
guidance. Patchy frost was mentioned, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...
This period will feature fair weather with steadily moderating
temperatures. The area will remain in northwest flow aloft with the
upper trough axis off the U.S. east coast. Surface high pressure
north of the region will build southeastward and the airmass will
continue to modify. Highs on Thursday will still be well below
normal, but about 6-8 degrees warmer than today. Lows Thursday night
will be mainly in the upper 30s inland with lower 40s in urban
centers and near water bodies. This is still a good 10-12 degrees
below normal. Highs on Friday will finally return to the lower 70s,
just a few degrees shy of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
An upper level trough will remain over the northeastern US through
the weekend On Monday, the polar jet will dip from Canada into the
Great Lakes region, deepen the trough slightly and allow the
ridge over the western US to finally make some eastward progress.
Sunday, with a short wave ahead of the jet moving through, a
surface low may develop to our northwest, giving us a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. Highs will return
to the 70s, starting with low 70s Friday and warming to the mid
70s for the weekend, and reaching upper 70s to low 80s by Tuesday.
Lows will start in the 40s and gradually increase through the
weekend, rising the the low 50s by Sunday night and low to mid 50s
on Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12z Thursday]...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Northerly winds
around 10 knots are expected this afternoon becoming calm tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Sustained winds will remain just below headline criteria this
morning at around 15 kt out of the north. As high pressure builds
southeastward, winds and seas will decrease and remain low into the
weekend. Winds will veer to onshore by Saturday and begin to
increase on Sunday ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass is expected to persist for the next few days with
occasional red flag conditions in some areas of southeast Alabama,
mainly this afternoon. For the most part, ERCs in northwest Florida
are below red flag criteria with the exception of Walton county.
High dispersions are also expected today and Thursday across
portions of the southeast Florida big bend and south-central
Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Although no new rainfall is expected through Saturday, runoff from
the past weekend's storms has produced some minor flooding.
Specifics follow.

The Ochlockonee River at Concord crested Monday night, but recession
has yet to occur. Downstream at Havana, the river is still rising,
but is forecast to crest below moderate flood stage by about a half
a foot tonight.

The Aucilla River at Lamont is experiencing a flat crest just above
flood stage.

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta will crest this afternoon and
fall below flood stage Friday night.

The Apalachicola River at Blountstown is no longer forecast to flood.

More information is available through the AHPS website:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  32  69  38  73 /  0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   61  41  68  47  71 /  0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  36  68  42  73 /  0   0   0   0   0
Albany        62  34  68  39  71 /  0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  34  67  39  71 /  0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  32  69  38  73 /  0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  38  66  44  69 /  0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for Central Walton-Inland Walton-South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey/DVD
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Wool

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-280900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
208 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013 /108 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF URBAN CENTERS
AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY BARELY
REACH FREEZING TONIGHT AND A WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

18-WOOL