Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
836 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
The 21 UTC regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front along the Gulf Coast and across North FL, separating warm,
very humid air to its south (dewpoints in the upper 70s) from
drier air to its north. Scattered showers and even a few
thunderstorms developed along this boundary this evening
(especially where outflow boundaries collided) in the FL
Panhandle & Southeast AL, causing localized flooding. There also
appeared to be a weak 500 mb short wave in this region as well.
All this despite much drier air developing aloft. The 00 UTC KTAE
sounding showed significant drying above 400 mb, but the lower
portion of the troposphere remained unusually moist, with precip water
values 130% of climatology.

None of the numerical guidance did a particularly good job at
initializing the aforementioned short wave (and heavy QPF) over
the FL Panhandle, so it's unclear as to just how long this will
persist. We will go on the assumption that this convection will
gradually diminish soon, while a new, large batch of deep moist
convection develops in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico later tonight.
This system will move northeast across North FL (mostly just east
of our forecast area) as a frontal wave develops. Despite this
evening's heavy rain, we plan to not issue a Flood Watch because
we think any more flooding is unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...
A line of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to
drift northward across the Florida/Alabama border this evening, and
could impact areas near DHN with reduced visibilities through 03Z.
Elsewhere, low clouds, drizzle, and isolated showers could continue
overnight, with IFR or LIFR conditions possible across the region in
the early morning.  Low ceilings could persist several hours after
sunrise across the region Tuesday morning, and scattered showers
remain possible regionwide as we remain under a very moist airmass.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall is expected over the next 24 to 48 hours. The
heaviest rain will likely fall over the eastern Big Bend tonight
through Tuesday, with 3 to 4 inches of additional rain expected.
This may lead to minor flooding of low-lying areas and minor rises
on area rivers. However, substantial flooding is not anticipated
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  83  70  87 /  40  60  50  50
Panama City   75  84  73  87 /  30  60  50  50
Dothan        70  83  69  86 /  60  50  50  40
Albany        70  83  69  86 /  30  50  50  50
Valdosta      71  83  69  85 /  50  60  50  60
Cross City    73  84  72  85 /  70  70  50  60
Apalachicola  76  83  75  85 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

REST OF DISCUSSION...Fournier
AVIATION...Lahr/Van Dyke
HYDROLOGY...Camp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S CYPRESS             30.67N 85.08W
09/23/2013                   JACKSON            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS CHURCH STREET AT ROCKY CREEK
            ROAD IS FLOODED AND EXPRESS STREET ABOUT 20 FEET FROM
            CHURCH STREET IS ALSO FLOODED.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TAYLOR                  31.16N 85.47W
09/23/2013                   HOUSTON            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE HOUSTON COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED A FEW ROADS
            UNDERWATER NEAR TAYLOR.

&&

DVD