Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Model guidance has been in pretty good agreement about additional
shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon across
Apalachee Bay and lifting northward into North Florida and South
Georgia and current radar trends seem to confirm this. The
widespread heavy rainfall looks to begin this period and continue
into Saturday. Initially the focus should be along the Florida Big
Bend Coast but then lift northwestward late tonight and into
Saturday. Rain chances have been increased to near 100 percent for
much of the forecast area overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Complex weather situation evolving across the region will lead to
periods of heavy rainfall through the weekend. By Saturday
morning, an anomalous upper low is forecast to be centered over
the bootheel of Missouri with a trough axis extending into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A potent 90kt upper jet will round
the base of the trough during the day placing the area in the
favorable right entrance region. These features combined with a
feed of deep tropical moisture eminating from the southern Gulf
disturbance, and a lingering surface front, will set the stage for
potentially heavy rainfall. Latest guidance places the highest QPF
and highest PoPs over the northwestern half of the forecast area.
With many of these areas already saturated from a very wet summer,
flash flooding will continue to be a possibility. Will have
categorical PoPs for most of the area on Saturday with
temperatures well below normal. See the hydrology section of this
product for more details on the potential flooding impact.

While the corridor of heaviest rain is likely to slide westward on
Sunday, the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama will remain in
a favorable position to receive additional heavy rain. However, at
least high end scattered PoPs are anticipated over the remainder
of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
Upper trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to
linger through the first half of next week keeping a moist and
unstable airmass in place over the tri-state area. This will keep
PoPs relatively high through at least Tuesday. By later in the
week, there is more uncertainty in the guidance as to how much
ridging will build back over the region, with the ECMWF keeping
the upper trough in tact and the GFS indicating a stronger ridge.
Being well into the extended, will keep conditions close to climo
as a compromise.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...
Expect more numerous showers with isolated storms to affect the
TLH/VLD terminals late this evening and then spread toward the
other sites toward daybreak. Mainly MVFR conditions are expected
with IFR conditions likely occuring closer to daybreak Saturday as
the intensity of the rain increases. Should see some break in the
action at VLD and TLH late Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be on the increase through the weekend,
especially over the western waters, as a trough of low pressure
lingers to the north and west. Conditions will occasionally reach
exercise caution levels through Sunday, with a brief period of
advisory conditions possible Saturday night. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Tonight and Saturday the focus will largely be on the potential
for flash flooding due to already wet ground conditions. Much of
the shower activity today has been featuring rainfall rates of 2
to 3 inches per hour. Fortunately in most places these showers
have been progressive enough and not training which has kept the
flood threat low. This may cease to be the case late this evening
as the intensity and coverage of the showers increases. The
heaviest rains are expected on Saturday with widespread average
rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches still anticipated. Isolated
higher totals are expected, possibly upward of 7 to 10 inches in
some locations.

River flooding will become an increasing concern by late Saturday
and into next week, especially depending on where the heaviest
rainfall ends up occurring. The current thinking is that much of
the heaviest rains will occur in the lower half of the basins.
Thus, if the latest forecast holds, the Choctawhatchee Basin from
Geneva through Bruce would easily return to minor flood stage late
in the weekend with the potential for moderate flooding from
Caryville southward to Bruce early next week. The Chipola has some
capacity for heavy rainfall, but if rainfall amounts trend higher
than expected, minor flooding would be a possibility at Marianna
and Altha early next week.

Into Southeast Alabama, soils are especially saturated and area
creeks and stream will quickly respond to any significant
rainfall. Minor flooding along the Choctawhatchee and Pea Rivers
could occur quickly in this scenario late this weekend.

In Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, current projections
move the Apalachicola, Flint, and Ochlockonee River systems to
near flood stage with anticipated rainfall, though heavier amounts
would easily lead to minor flooding, especially in the lower
portions of these basins where heavier rains were received in
July.

Lighter rainfall amounts are anticipated further east into the
Withlacoochee and Suwannee River basins and the current
anticipation is for these rivers to remain below flood stage into
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  84  71  91  74 / 90  80  60  60  50
Panama City   77  83  75  88  77 / 90  90  60  60  50
Dothan        72  81  70  86  72 / 60  90  60  60  50
Albany        73  83  71  89  74 / 70  90  60  60  40
Valdosta      72  85  69  90  73 / 90  70  60  50  40
Cross City    74  86  72  91  73 / 80  60  40  50  50
Apalachicola  78  85  78  87  79 / 90  80  60  60  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Gulf-Inland Walton-Jackson-South Walton-Washington.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey