Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
214 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]...
The east coast upper trough and associated shortwave energy will
begin to move off to our northeast today but not before one more day
of widespread convection. The highest PoPs (70%) will be over the
region in and around Valdosta as well as most of the eastern Big
Bend. A drier airmass will gradually filter in from west to east
late this afternoon and evening. Highs will be around 90 to the
lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday]...
The 500mb trough that has been impacting our local weather the past
few days will lift out of our area tonight and Friday. The latest
NWP guidance continues its recent trend of forecasting a band of
sinking, drying air aloft developing over much of our forecast
area on Friday, especially over GA and AL. Although there will be
some drying from Tallahassee southeastward, there will probably be
enough deep layer moisture to support isolated to scattered
showers & thunderstorms. This same weather pattern will hold
through Saturday, and our PoP ranges from 20% around Dothan and
Albany to 30% around Cross City and Valdosta both Friday and
Saturday. The highest rain chances are during the morning hours
over the coastal waters and beaches, and during the afternoon and
evening hours inland.

Drier air and rising heights usually mean warmer temperatures,
and highs inland will be in the mid 90s, with some of our normally
warmer locations possibly reaching the upper 90s. While dewpoints
may drop slightly from their current high levels (especially
around Dothan and Albany), the combination of heat and humidity
will yield heat index values in the 100 to 104 degree range each
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday night through Wednesday]...
Zonal flow pattern at upper levels should remain in place through
the weekend, with the jet stream over the northern U.S. and a ridge
in place over the southern tier of states. Precipitation chances
will remain low over our area Saturday and Sunday, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours.  During the beginning of the next week, moisture is
expected to increase over the Southeast, and another upper shortwave
could potentially impact our area, leading to increased precipitation
chances during this time.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...
We will continue to see IFR CIGS/VSBYS develop across the local
region this morning due to all the residual moisture from
yesterday's thunderstorms. VFR conditions return shortly after
daybreak but we expect another active day with convection this
afternoon and evening. Winds will be west to southwest around 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge will remain south of the coastal waters through the weekend,
keeping southwest to west winds around 10 KT across our marine area.
Seas will remain 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce was in minor flood, but will fall slowly
through the weekend, possible falling below flood stage early next
week.

Although drier air will gradually infiltrate our forecast area from
northwest to southeast later tonight and Friday, Precip Water values
remain above average today. The GFS forecast storm motion is only
around 5 KT, which means that there is a low-end threat for flash
flooding, mainly over small, fast-reacting basins such as urban
areas and along small streams with current above-normal stream flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  74  95  75  95 / 70  30  20  20  20
Panama City   90  78  90  78  90 / 60  30  20  10  20
Dothan        92  73  97  73  96 / 50  30  20  10  20
Albany        92  74  96  73  96 / 60  30  20  10  20
Valdosta      92  73  97  74  95 / 70  30  30  20  20
Cross City    90  73  92  74  93 / 60  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  89  77  89  77  89 / 60  20  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Moore/Lahr
MARINE...Fournier
AVIATION...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Fournier