Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Tallahassee, FL

252 
WGUS72 KTAE 142133
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
433 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

FLC133-142142-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-130714T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON FL-
433 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY...

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PRODUCED UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 
JUST OVER ONE HOUR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA. VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR. THEREFORE 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3066 8589 3066 8587 3068 8587 3069 8586
      3075 8580 3044 8555 3044 8579 3063 8590

$$

08-LAMERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
An upper level low currently located over southern Nebraska will
continue to retrograde westward. At the surface current radar and
satellite loops show the center of a surface low pressure offshore
of Destin. This will continue slowly drift northwest through the
rest of the afternoon and evening. The main shower and thunderstorm
activity has been associated with the northeast quadrant of the
surface low, so have tweaked the PoP grids for the remaining of
this afternoon to reflect this thinking. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should remain after sunset, and then be confined to
over water into the early morning. Made a few other minor tweaks
to the temperature grids due do the morning cloud deck more or
less becoming scattered over much of our CWA.

Generally expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s, with a few
spots possible of seeing the lower 90s. For tonight expect mostly
cloudy skies with low temperatures reaching the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper low will be centered over OK Monday morning and continue
to drift further away from the region. This will allow the big upper
high over the Midwest to ridge further into the South. This ridge
will eventually help to suppress PoPs later in the week. However, in
the short term we will be dealing with a couple of tropical waves
that will move across the FL Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The initial wave will keep PoPs in the likely category for
most of the forecast area on Monday with temps again coming in 3-5
degrees below normal. It should be noted that we are discounting the
NAM solution which actually brings a closed low across FL with
higher rain chances and marine winds. We prefer the open wave
scenario depicted by the GFS and Euro. By Tuesday, a downward trend
in PoPs will commence as we begin to come under increasing influence
of the upper ridge. Max temps will be within a degree or two of
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
At the beginning of the period, a large 598-dm upper level high will
be centered over Indiana. This high will gradually settle southward
and eventually merge with the West Atlantic subtropical ridge by
Friday. The surface ridge axis will initially be north of the area
with a couple of tropical easterly waves passing under it across FL
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While the ridge will suppress PoPs
below seasonal levels, slight to low chance PoPs will be maintained
Wednesday and Thursday to account for these waves. Max temps will
actually be above normal on both of these days due to the suppressed
convection. By Friday, the surface ridge axis will slip south of the
region and low to mid level winds will veer to the southwest. This
will set up a typical summertime regime of sea- and land-breeze
induced convection with typical summer temperatures returning as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18 UTC Monday] A surface low pressure off the coast of
Destin will move northwest, and continue to drag low level
moisture up through our terminals. Recent satellite imagery loops
do show low CIGS present are starting to become more scattered in
nature. Therefore outside of showers and thunderstorms, all
terminals should experience VFR conditions through early morning.
There is higher confidence in showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening at our western terminals. In the early
morning hours before sunrise expect low IFR CIGs to develop, and
gradually become VFR throughout mid-morning and the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A week area of low pressure will come ashore near Destin late today.
Cautionary winds have not been observed outside of thunderstorms and
the headline will be removed from the forecast. An increase in wind
speed to cautionary or marginal advisory levels is expected Monday
night into Tuesday night as a tropical wave passes westward across
the waters. Lighter winds are expected later in the week as high
pressure settles south of the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
We plan to drop the flash flood watch with this afternoon's package.
Steering flow has increased considerably since yesterday. The faster
storm motions should mitigate any large scale flood threat, although
an isolated threat continues in any areas that get training.

As far as the rivers are concerned, the Apalachicola at Blountstown
has inched back above flood stage today. Other rivers are holding
steady or in gradual recession. Please refer to our River Forecast
page (below) for more detailed information.

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  88  73  90  72 / 50  60  30  40  20
Panama City   76  86  74  89  75 / 40  60  30  40  30
Dothan        72  87  71  90  71 / 50  60  30  40  20
Albany        72  89  72  91  72 / 50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  88  72  91  71 / 50  60  30  40  20
Cross City    74  89  72  91  71 / 60  60  30  40  20
Apalachicola  77  86  75  88  75 / 40  60  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Near Term/Aviation...Hollingsworth/Navarro
Fire Weather...Gould
Rest of Discussion...Wool

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
113 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

FLZ010-141845-
WASHINGTON FL-
113 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

AT 106 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERNON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50
MPH...OR NEAR SPRING HOLLOW...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 3064 8590 3066 8587 3073 8582 3077 8583
      3079 8582 3079 8575 3078 8574 3075 8573
      3075 8568 3067 8556 3054 8564 3062 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 121DEG 23KT 3063 8569

08-LAMERS