Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Current forecast appears to be on track for this afternoon. Storms
are firing along the sea breeze and very slowly moving NW, which
lines up quite nicely with the current PoP forecast. These storms
aren't very strong, so rainfall rates aren't impressive enough to
cause alarm for flash flooding.

Raised PoPs to 30% in our eastern CWA, as some of the earlier
daytime storms might linger shortly after sunset. After midnight,
the nocturnal land breeze will push offshore and potentially cause
some showers and thunderstorms in our eastern waters. This
forecast thinking is affirmed with latest high-res guidance.

Tonight expect skies clearing after sunset with a low temperatures
falling into the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Deep moisture plume being stretched/narrowed sw-ne across the area
out of the wrn Gulf of Mexico will likely remain in place for at
least another day before slightly drier mid level air will be
shunted wwd ahead of slow moving TUTT low over the Bahamas.  With
abundant low level moisture in place, will likely continue to see
scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across the area,
along with warm afternoon temperatures well into the lower/mid 90s
inland. Have bumped PoPs a bit through the period given the
persistence of this moisture plume and less drying expected in
advance of the TUTT low. Surface pattern will remain diffuse, with
generally light winds through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
It appears an unsettled pattern will be holding through the
extended period as a weak surface front settles ssewd into srn
GA/nrn FL by the weekend. In addition, residual deep layer
moisture associated with dissipating TUTT low should spread into
the area. This could provide a persistent focus for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, particularly Friday
and Saturday where we have maintained 50-60% PoPs, with both the
GFS and ECMWF painting QPF over our area. By early next week,
uncertainty will increase as general influence of TS Chantal
approaches the east FL coast late this weekend or early next. Much
uncertainty with where this system will go, or if it will even
persist, into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18z Tuesday] Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop across the area this afternoon moving slowly
under light flow aloft. Added VCTS to all TAF locations through
00Z.

Some local fog possible tomorrow morning mainly at KECP and KDHN
from 09Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be seasonal for mid summer for the rest of the
week with light winds and a chance or slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical values.
Therefore no fire weather concerns are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Because most of the heavy rain last week fell across the lower
portions of the river basins, most of the local forecast points
that had significant river stage rises were already on their way
down, including:

the Choctawhatchee River at Geneva, AL (Action stage), Apalachicola
River at Blountstown, FL (minor flood), Ochlockonee River at
Thomasville, GA and Concord, FL, (both Action stage), the
Withlacoochee River at Valdosta, GA (minor flood), St. Marks River
near Newport, FL (minor flood), the Shoal River at Mossy Head
(Action stage), and the Sopchoppy River at Sopchoppy, FL (moderate
flood).

Some forecast points farther downstream were still on the rise,
however, including:

the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville (minor flood) and Bruce, FL
(major flood), the Chipola River at Marianna, FL (Action stage), the
Withlacoochee River at Pinetta, FL (Action stage), and the Econfina
River near Perry, FL (Action stage).

For the latest, detailed information on river stages near you,
please visit our website at weather.gov, and follow the links to the
"Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Center" (AHPS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  93  73  92  72 / 30  30  20  40  30
Panama City   75  89  75  88  76 / 20  30  20  30  30
Dothan        72  93  74  92  72 / 20  40  20  50  30
Albany        73  93  73  92  72 / 30  40  20  50  30
Valdosta      72  96  71  95  71 / 30  30  20  40  30
Cross City    72  93  71  91  70 / 20  30  20  40  30
Apalachicola  75  88  75  88  76 / 10  30  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Near Term/Fire Weather...Navarro/DVD
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...Evans
Aviation...Hollingsworth
Hydrology...Fournier/DVD