Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Tallahassee, FL

236 
WGUS72 KTAE 031605
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1105 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

FLC005-059-131-133-031915-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130703T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOLMES FL-BAY FL-WASHINGTON FL-WALTON FL-
1105 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
WALTON...WASHINGTON...WEST CENTRAL BAY AND HOLMES COUNTIES...

AT 1052 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS 
ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. WATER 
WAS REPORTED TO BE AFFECTING SOME HOMES NEAR HOLMES CREEK IN 
WASHINGTON COUNTY. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE 
AREA WITH TREMENDOUS RAIN RATES OF UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THIS IS BECOMING A SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION.

SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT FLOW INTO THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER ARE 
LIKELY TO RISE SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES HOLMES CREEK 
NEAR VERNON WHERE SIGNIFICANT RISES APPEAR POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE 
NEAR A STREAM OR CREEK IN THE WARNED AREA...YOU SHOULD MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VERNON...DE
FUNIAK SPRINGS AND BONIFAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE AWAY FROM RISING WATER TO HIGHER GROUND! MOST FLOOD DEATHS 
OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS. 
REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8640 3100 8597 3099 8561 3083 8560
      3083 8557 3067 8553 3029 8559 3025 8574
      3029 8577 3028 8583 3023 8584 3025 8576
      3021 8589 3038 8640 3043 8632 3039 8613
      3047 8621 3046 8640

$$

08-LAMERS

861 
WGUS72 KTAE 031802
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
102 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

FLC005-059-131-133-031915-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130703T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOLMES FL-BAY FL-WASHINGTON FL-WALTON FL-
102 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
WALTON...WASHINGTON...WEST CENTRAL BAY AND HOLMES COUNTIES...

AT 1253 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS 
ROAD CLOSURES AND WATER OVER ROADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. 
SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN PARTS OF 
WASHINGTON AND HOLMES COUNTIES. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...SOME PEOPLE 
IN LOW LYING AREAS WERE BEING EVACUATED NEAR HOLMES CREEK. DEEP 
WATER WAS REPORTED TO BE FLOWING SWIFTLY OVER MOSS HILL ROAD JUST 
SOUTHEAST OF VERNON.

HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 
2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH 10 INCHES IN PARTS OF WESTERN 
WASHINGTON COUNTY.

THIS IS BECOMING A SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION! SOME STREAMS AND 
CREEKS THAT FLOW INTO THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER ARE LIKELY TO RISE 
SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES HOLMES CREEK.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VERNON...DE
FUNIAK SPRINGS AND BONIFAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE AWAY FROM RISING WATER TO HIGHER GROUND! MOST FLOOD DEATHS 
OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS. 
REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8640 3100 8597 3099 8561 3083 8560
      3083 8557 3067 8553 3029 8559 3025 8574
      3029 8577 3028 8583 3023 8584 3025 8576
      3021 8589 3038 8640 3043 8632 3039 8613
      3047 8621 3046 8640

$$

08-LAMERS

392 
WGUS52 KTAE 031837
FFWTAE
FLC005-059-131-133-032315-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130703T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
137 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
  HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BONIFAY...
  WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SANTA ROSA BEACH...DE FUNIAK
  SPRINGS...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERNON...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 131 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO 
  REPORT FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
  THE WARNED AREA. IN MANY AREAS...WATER WAS STILL RISING OR 
  ADVANCING. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
  EXTENDED AS MORE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE 
  AREA. IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES...RAPIDLY RISING 
  WATER ALONG SOME AREA CREEKS SUCH AS HOLMES CREEK MAY AFFECT
  SOME HOMES OR BUSINESSES.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WAUSAU...PORTLAND...PONCE DE LEON...MOSSY HEAD..HOLMES COUNTY 
  AIRPORT...EUCHEEANNA...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...CARYVILLE...BONIFAY
  AND VERNON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION! WATER MAY RISE RAPIDLY. NOW IS 
THE TIME TO MOVE AWAY FROM STREAMS AND LOW SPOTS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS 
OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS. 
REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8640 3100 8597 3099 8561 3083 8560
      3083 8557 3067 8553 3029 8559 3025 8574
      3029 8577 3028 8583 3023 8584 3025 8576
      3021 8589 3038 8640 3043 8632 3039 8613
      3047 8621 3046 8640

$$

08-LAMERS

721 
WGUS72 KTAE 032025
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

FLC005-059-131-133-032315-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130703T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOLMES FL-BAY FL-WASHINGTON FL-WALTON FL-
325 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
WALTON...WASHINGTON...WEST CENTRAL BAY AND HOLMES COUNTIES...

AT 318 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED CONTINUED 
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND 
MORE RAIN WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA. NUMEROUS ROADS WERE STILL 
CLOSED. IN VERNON IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...WATER HAD REPORTEDLY 
ENTERED AT LEAST FIVE HOMES AND A SCHOOL.

WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE 
RISING SHARPLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PEOPLE NEAR 
STREAMS AND CREEKS...OR IN LOW LYING AREAS...SHOULD MOVE TO THE 
SAFETY OF HIGHER GROUND.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VERNON...DE
FUNIAK SPRINGS AND BONIFAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION! WATER MAY RISE RAPIDLY. NOW IS 
THE TIME TO MOVE AWAY FROM STREAMS AND LOW SPOTS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS 
OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS. 
REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8640 3100 8597 3099 8561 3083 8560
      3083 8557 3067 8553 3029 8559 3025 8574
      3029 8577 3028 8583 3023 8584 3025 8576
      3021 8589 3038 8640 3043 8632 3039 8613
      3047 8621 3046 8640

$$

08-LAMERS

755 
WGUS72 KTAE 032308
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
608 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

FLC005-059-131-133-032316-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130703T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOLMES FL-BAY FL-WASHINGTON FL-WALTON FL-
608 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT FOR WALTON...
WASHINGTON...WEST CENTRAL BAY AND HOLMES COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS 
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR MORE 
GRADUALLY UNLESS HEAVIER RAIN BANDS REDEVELOP.

HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS 
ESPECIALLY NEAR LOW LYING SPOTS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS AS FLOODING 
WILL CONTINUE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU SEE RISING WATER HEAD TO HIGHER GROUND. AND NEVER 
DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3076 8640 3100 8597 3099 8561 3083 8560
      3083 8557 3067 8553 3029 8559 3025 8574
      3029 8577 3028 8583 3023 8584 3025 8576
      3021 8589 3038 8640 3043 8632 3039 8613
      3047 8621 3046 8640

$$

08-LAMERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2013

.UPDATE...
Rainy morning so far with almost all of the two-thirds of our
forecast area already getting rain. Expect showers to spread
across the area today. Environment is still looking viable for some
strong to severe storms today. Please see previous discussion
below for more details.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The amplified pattern with troughing in the central part of the
country and ridging off the east coast is causing deep southerly
flow over the CWA. This is a very moist air tropical air mass
with precipitable water values anywhere from 2-2.3 in. With PWATs
this high, the atmosphere becomes a very efficient rain producer.
Therefore have raised PoPs to 100% for the afternoon. Rain will
become widespread throughout the day. Generally expect 1-2 inches
with locally heavier amounts possible.

Positive differential vorticity advection along with other QG
forcing ahead of a digging shortwave is forcing pressure falls at
the surface, thus strengthening a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico.
It is currently off the Louisiana coast, and is expected to move
eastward and strengthen throughout the day. The strengthening low
will increase the pressure gradient adding to an increase in winds.
As the upper level shortwave and surface low move east, there will
be an increase in wind shear allowing for a low end chance of severe
weather. This afternoon 0-6 km shear will increase to around 35
knots with the majority of the shear concentrated in the lowest 1
km. This CAPE/Shear profile will create a storm environment with the
potential of producing shallow supercells. The environment isn't
overly impressive, but the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put our
area in a 2% tornado risk tomorrow for tornadoes.

With all of the rain and cloud cover, expect high temperatures to
only only reach the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
The threat for heavy rain will continue as the low over the Gulf
of Mexico drifts north toward the coast. Model consensus brings
the low center ashore near or just west of Mobile Bay on Thursday.
Deep layer onshore through through the entire column will maintain
precipitable water values well over two inches through at least
Friday. One of the primary hazards continues to be flooding. We
have had several days with localized heavy rains already and the
potential exists for several more inches of rain over a large area
over the next 36 to 48 hours or so. Additional details on this
threat can be found in the hydrology section below.

As the surface low deepens and approaches the coast, the threat
for high surf and associated rip current risk will also increase.
A high risk for rip currents is already in effect for the
Panhandle and this will likely be extended east to Franklin County
for Thursday. A high surf advisory will also likely be needed as
it appears criteria will be met early Thursday morning and
continue on into early Friday morning.

Finally, the severe weather and tornado threat could continue into
the night with 0-1 km bulk shear values holding in the 20-25 knot
range.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
The upper level trough finally gets squeezed out over the weekend as
the ridge out west begins to merge with the Bermuda ridge. The deep
plume of tropical moisture will persist across the entire CWA
through Saturday and then only over the western zones Sunday as
drier air filters in from the east. Monday looks like a relatively
quiet day with respect to convection. However, this may be short
lived as models show a tropical wave crossing south Florida Monday
night and entering the eastern Gulf Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Thursday] Showers and thunderstorms this morning
primarily affecting the Wrn terminals at ECP, DHN, and TLH with
MVFR-IFR cigs and vsbys. As showers and thunderstorms become more
widespread, MVFR-IFR restrictions will prevail at all terminals through
the remaining TAF Period.

&&

.MARINE...
This is not shaping up to be a good extended holiday weekend for
boating across the local marine area. Low pressure will develop
over the east central Gulf of Mexico today and drift north toward
the coast, coming ashore near or just west of Mobile Bay on
Thursday. Winds will increase across the marine area with advisory
conditions expected across the western waters by this afternoon.
These conditions will spread to the central waters by tonight, but
should not reach as far east as the Apalachee Bay. Seas south of
the Florida Panhandle could reach 11 feet Thursday morning and
gale force gusts cannot be ruled out at that time. After the low
moves ashore, conditions will gradually improve on Friday.
However, another period of cautionary conditions is possible on
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With abundant rainfall forecast, red flag criteria will not be a
concern for some time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The anomalous mid/upper level trough with its axis extending from
the Upper Mississippi Valley, south to the Southern Plains has set
up deep layer southerly flow across the eastern U.S. Favorable
low/mid level forcing is forecast to set up in an area from
approximately Tallahassee west to Pensacola. Within this ribbon
of forcing, widespread 4- to 7-inch rainfall amounts are possible
with double that amount a possibility in isolated areas. So far,
widespread amounts near an inch have fallen over the past 24
hours. Since yesterday afternoon, some locations across
Leon/Wakulla/Jefferson counties have received on average 3 to 5
inches of rain, with over 7 inches reported in Natural Bridge.
These locations will be highly susceptible to flooding over the
next 24 hours.

With respect to area rivers, the aforementioned rainfall has
resulted in a rise to Minor Flood Stage along the St. Marks River
near Newport, and likely north and south of there. Depending on the
exact set-up of the prolonged rain, the St. Marks river may remain
in flood stage for several days. Further, since the best chance of
heavy rain will remain primarily across North Florida, the Apalachicola,
Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Sopchoppy rivers will have
the greatest chance of being impacted. At this time, due to current
low flows ensemble guidance and current forecasts only forecast
these rivers to reach action or minor flood stage at worst. The
exception would be the St. Marks River, where prolonged heavy rains
could take it into Moderate flood stage if the higher rainfall
totals are realized there. Additionally, flashy creeks or streams
throughout North Florida should be on high alert and monitor local
forecasts for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  73  87  71  91 /100  90  80  40  50
Panama City   83  75  86  75  87 /100  90  80  60  70
Dothan        85  72  85  71  87 /100  90  80  60  70
Albany        85  72  87  72  89 /100  90  70  40  60
Valdosta      85  72  88  71  90 /100  80  60  30  50
Cross City    85  73  88  71  92 /100  70  60  40  40
Apalachicola  85  76  84  75  88 /100  90  80  50  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland
     Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland
     Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
     Walton-Washington.
GA...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Waters from Suwannee River
     to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

Update...Moore
Near Term...Wool/Navarro
Short Term/Marine...Wool
Long Term...Barry
Aviation...Moore/Navarro
Fire Weather...Harrigan/Navarro
Hydrology..Harrigan