Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Sacramento, CA

542 
WWUS86 KSTO 101200
RFWSTO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
500 AM PDT MON JUN 10 2013


CAZ213>215-221-263-264-266-268-269-279-101300-
/O.CAN.KSTO.FW.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130610T1800Z/
/O.EXP.KSTO.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130610T1200Z/
EASTERN PORTION OF SHASTA/TRINITY NF-
BURNEY BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING
NORTHWEST LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN TEHAMA COUNTY LINE BELOW
1000 FT-STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
SOUTHEAST EDGE SHASTA-TRINITY NF AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF TEHAMA-
GLENN UNIT-LAKE COUNTY PORTION OF LAKE-NAPA-SONOMA UNIT-
NORTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM 1000 TO 3000 FT. INCLUDES PORTIONS
OF SHASTA-TRINITY AND BUTTE UNITS-
NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-
BECKWORTH PEAK)-
NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST-EASTERN MENDOCINO NF-
500 AM PDT MON JUN 10 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 213...214...215...
221...263...264...266...268...269 AND 279...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 213...214...215...221...263...264...266...268...
269 AND 279...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
410 AM PDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND MONDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.TODAY AND MONDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL THAT BROUGHT THE LAST FEW DAYS OF VERY HOT
WEATHER HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DELTA BREEZE
REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG EARLY THIS MORNING...USHERING IN A
MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS TO MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY VS
YESTERDAY.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND MONDAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS ALREADY BEEN ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLY SAFE BET THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DRIFT INTO
THE FOOTHILLS OR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY... AND SO WE HAVE HELD ONTO AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IN THE VALLEY. THE BIGGEST THREATS ARE
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING FIRE STARTS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY START OFF
DRY TODAY... THEN GRADUALLY BECOME WET AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER
MOISTENS UP.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL SET UP ALONG THE
WEST COAST WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
PEAKING IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG SIERRA RIDGETOPS AND
THROUGH THE BURNEY BASIN IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

DANG

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

A MEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BRINGING GENERALLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE
DELTA.

DANG

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRES WEAKENS ACRS NORCAL NXT 24 HRS AS UPR LOW OFF THE SOCAL
CST MOVS NWD INTO NV. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC
LCL IFR POSS IN ST W OF KSUU TIL 17Z AND LCL MVFR POSS IN SCT TSRA
NRN SIERNEV AFT 20Z. ISOLD TSRA POSS N OF KUKI-KRNO TNGT. LCL N-NE
SFC WND GSTS TO 25 KTS POSS IN NRN SAC VLY TIL 00Z SUN AND IN ADJ
FTHLS THRU 15Z SUN. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS 25-35 KTS CONTG THRU
CARQ STRAIT AND WRN DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY...CLEAR
LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY
TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO
VALLEY...NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...SHASTA LAKE AREA /
NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY...WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.

&&