Alert archive / New York / Tornado Watches in 2013

Tornado Watch 543

October 7, 20136 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 7, 2013, 8:56 AM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 7, 2013, 8:56 AM EDT (12:56 UTC)
Expired: Oct 7, 2013, 5:00 PM EDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 65 kt

All 144 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Kings County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, New York County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Orange County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Yates County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Chester County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Greene County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Orange County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

36 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 7, 8:57 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Franklin	48 min
Oct 7, 9:27 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Tioga	63 min
Oct 7, 9:51 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben	54 min
Oct 7, 10:05 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Greene, Madison, Orange, Spotsylvania, City of Charlottesville	40 min
Oct 7, 10:24 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chemung, Schuyler	51 min
Oct 7, 10:39 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Columbia, Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Snyder, Union	66 min
Oct 7, 11:17 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Luzerne, Wyoming	43 min
Oct 7, 11:20 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Spotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fredericksburg	25 min
Oct 7, 11:24 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	LWX	Spotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fredericksburg	36 min
Oct 7, 11:28 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Bradford, Susquehanna	47 min
Oct 7, 11:42 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Charles, Prince George's	48 min
Oct 7, 11:50 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks	40 min
Oct 7, 12:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton	63 min
Oct 7, 12:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego	57 min
Oct 7, 12:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks, Chester, Montgomery	41 min
Oct 7, 12:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan	65 min
Oct 7, 1:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	New Castle	25 min
Oct 7, 1:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Otsego	49 min
Oct 7, 1:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Herkimer, Montgomery	31 min
Oct 7, 1:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Sullivan	52 min
Oct 7, 1:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Orange	59 min
Oct 7, 1:57 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ALY	Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer	33 min
Oct 7, 1:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Hunterdon	46 min
Oct 7, 2:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Hamilton, Montgomery, Saratoga	24 min
Oct 7, 2:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady and 2 more	63 min
Oct 7, 2:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Hamilton, Warren	33 min
Oct 7, 2:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Kent, Sussex	57 min
Oct 7, 2:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Hamilton, Montgomery, Saratoga, Schenectady, Warren	29 min
Oct 7, 2:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Bergen, Passaic	42 min
Oct 7, 2:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Saratoga, Warren, Washington	32 min
Oct 7, 3:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Ulster	55 min
Oct 7, 3:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Union	9 min
Oct 7, 3:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Union	27 min
Oct 7, 3:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Columbia, Rensselaer	56 min
Oct 7, 3:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Putnam, Westchester	48 min
Oct 7, 3:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Columbia, Dutchess	61 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 114 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 584 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 196 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 7, 8:10 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	New Castle	2 hr
Oct 7, 10:36 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kent, New Castle	114 min
Oct 7, 12:20 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kent, New Castle, Sussex	115 min
Oct 7, 3:18 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kent, Sussex	87 min
Oct 7, 11:39 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clinton, Essex, Franklin, St. Lawrence	3 hr
Oct 7, 2:26 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Suffolk	2 hr
Oct 7, 2:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Nassau, Suffolk	7 hr
Oct 7, 4:29 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bronx, New York, Putnam, Suffolk, Westchester	91 min
Oct 7, 12:12 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brunswick, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Gloucester, Greensville and 30 more	3 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in New York, 2013 Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2013 Tornado Watches in New Jersey, 2013 Every tornado watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.