Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2013
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 10, 2013, 3:56 PM EDT for 14 counties in New York; 27 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2013, 3:56 PM EDT (19:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2013, 10:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 41 counties
Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 4:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Warren | 64 min |
| Jul 10, 4:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Chautauqua | 63 min |
| Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | McKean, Warren | 58 min |
| Jul 10, 5:09 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Chautauqua | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 5:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua | 65 min |
| Jul 10, 5:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cameron, Elk | 48 min |
| Jul 10, 5:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Erie, Wyoming | 40 min |
| Jul 10, 5:58 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Clearfield, Elk | 4 hr |
| Jul 10, 6:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clearfield, Elk | 60 min |
| Jul 10, 6:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie | 38 min |
| Jul 10, 6:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Livingston, Wyoming | 48 min |
| Jul 10, 6:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton and 2 more | 57 min |
| Jul 10, 7:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Somerset | 57 min |
| Jul 10, 7:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Blair, Cambria, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Huntingdon and 1 more | 64 min |
| Jul 10, 7:29 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Centre | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 7:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Huntingdon, Somerset | 66 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 520 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 552 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 122 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 3:45 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 20 more | 30 min |
| Jul 10, 6:15 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung, Cortland, Erie and 16 more | 90 min |
| Jul 10, 12:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Crawford and 11 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2013Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2013Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.