Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013
Mesoscale Discussion 968
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 5, 2013, 6:23 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 5, 2013, 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 5, 2013, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 34 counties
Dawson County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Towns County, GA, Union County, GA, White County, GA, Buncombe County, NC, Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Carter County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, Scott County, VA
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1227 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -51 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 558 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 3 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -34 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
987
ACUS11 KWNS 052224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052223
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-060000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...FAR SWRN VA...FAR WRN SC...NRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052223Z - 060000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BUT A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BECOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO
NNE/SSW-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE BOOSTED ASCENT AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT EARLIER
CROSSED PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. DIURNAL DIABATIC HEATING HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION N OF AN ILL-DEFINED
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN/PIEDMONT REGION OF SC AND
GA. MLCAPE VALUES ONLY REACH AROUND 500-800 J/KG N OF THIS BOUNDARY
PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING/BUOYANCY
RELEGATED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER S. REGARDLESS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXISTS DOWNSTREAM/E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY FOR ITS
SUSTENANCE UNTIL AROUND DUSK. THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY. UNTIL THEN...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
THE WEAK INSTABILITY...AND ONLY AROUND 15 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
SAMPLED BY MRX VWP...SUGGEST THAT THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY
LOW.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/05/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 36388329 36798254 36648189 36178188 35448237 34618339
34338395 34268445 34618467 36388329SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 12:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chattooga, Dade | 97 min |
| Jun 5, 7:12 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lauderdale, Shelby, Tipton | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.