Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013
Mesoscale Discussion 608
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 9, 2013, 6:39 AM CDT for 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 9, 2013, 6:39 AM CDT (11:39 UTC)
- Expired
- May 9, 2013, 9:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hood County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Mills County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Tom Green County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 596 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -149 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1763 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
404
ACUS11 KWNS 091140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091139
TXZ000-091415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CDT THU MAY 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091139Z - 091415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED JUST E OF SJT NEAR
THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E AXIS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AN
INCREASED SFC TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT AT SJT INDICATIVE OF SOME
VERTICAL MIXING AND PERHAPS EROSION OF CIN. ALSO AIDING IN LIFT IS A
LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE ALOFT SEEN ON SATELLITE. THE STORMS ARE
FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT JUMBLED WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER 4-5 KM AS SEEN
ON VWP. THIS IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN A CLUSTER OF MULTICELLS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THESE STORMS TO PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AS WARM ADVECTION
PERSISTS. THE STRONGER CORES MAY HAVE PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL. A WIND
THREAT APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD INCREASE LATER
TODAY IF THE CLUSTER MANAGES TO GET LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW.
..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/09/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
LAT...LON 31449801 31229940 31250017 31440056 31940062 32629961
32959849 32909787 32619750 32159723 31899719 31449801SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 9:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Coleman, Comanche and 15 more | 113 min |
| May 9, 11:52 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Callahan and 44 more | 9 hr |
| May 9, 2:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Brazos, Grimes, Hardin, Houston, Jasper and 12 more | 53 min |
| May 9, 3:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Callahan and 42 more | 56 min |
| May 9, 3:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Angelina, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Cherokee, Gregg and 25 more | 6 hr |
| May 9, 5:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Crosby, Donley and 4 more | 67 min |
| May 9, 6:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Brown and 47 more | 63 min |
| May 9, 6:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Cherokee, Hardin, Jasper, Liberty, Montgomery and 10 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.