Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 1621

August 5, 201316 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 5, 2013, 2:04 AM MDT for 16 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 5, 2013, 2:04 AM MDT (08:04 UTC)
Expired
Aug 5, 2013, 3:00 AM MDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%

Counties Bennett County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Oglala Lakota County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Todd County, SD, Tripp County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2013-08-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 352 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2013-08-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -73 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
352 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-170 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2206 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-73 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

469 
ACUS11 KWNS 050805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050804 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-050900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT MON AUG 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...FAR ERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 050804Z - 050900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SRN SD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NEAR
NEWCASTLE WY EXTENDING EWD TO THE BADLANDS OF SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS IS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE
WSR-88D VWP AT RAPID CITY SHOW ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS PROBABLY A BIT STRONGER ACROSS SCNTRL SD WHERE THE
EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
STORM MOTIONS ARE ELY AT ABOUT 40 KT.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43489899 44129900 44489959 44470067 44260224 44090370
            43940415 43550430 43290419 43090385 42980260 42850132
            42860033 43029951 43489899

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 5, 2:14 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBennett, Custer, Fall River, Haakon, Jackson, Jones and 5 more3 hr
Aug 5, 5:14 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Bennett, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Douglas and 7 more91 min
Aug 5, 2:31 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButte, Custer, Fall River, Lawrence, Pennington89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.