Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 1321

July 3, 201315 counties in New Mexico; Parmer County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 3, 2013, 4:07 PM MDT for 15 counties in New Mexico; Parmer County, Texas. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 2013, 4:07 PM MDT (22:07 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 2013, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Doña Ana County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sierra County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Parmer County, TX

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391Jul 3, 4:30 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 188 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -193 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1172 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 100 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

299 
ACUS11 KWNS 032207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032207 
TXZ000-NMZ000-032300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT WED JUL 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN-ERN NM / FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 032207Z - 032300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE
AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
CONSIDERED IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY NM AND HARTLEY AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN TX.  THE
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS IN ERN NM IS CHARACTERIZED BY
A MARGINAL BUOYANCY /500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE/ WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.  KFDX SHOWS A STRONGLY
SHEARED DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE WITH SLY/S AT THE SURFACE VEERING TO
A NLY COMPONENT IN THE MID-LEVELS /40 KT AT 6 KM ARL/.  THE QUASI
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS/ THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE LOSS OF HEATING/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION ENSUES.

..SMITH/GOSS.. 07/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32530337 32240472 32220715 33520757 34890618 35770470
            35810292 34750266 32530337

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 6:57 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Doña Ana, Grant, Hidalgo, Luna	2 hr
Jul 3, 2:43 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bernalillo, Doña Ana, Harding, Lincoln, Los Alamos, Mora and 9 more	92 min
Jul 3, 4:28 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Doña Ana, Grant, Guadalupe and 15 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2013 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2013 Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.