Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013
Mesoscale Discussion 1012
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2013, 11:31 AM EDT for 7 counties in Georgia; 24 counties in North Carolina; 30 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 10, 2013, 11:31 AM EDT (15:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 10, 2013, 1:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 61 counties
Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Madison County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Wake County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1882 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 477 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 93 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 79 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 3.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
900
ACUS11 KWNS 101531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101531
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-101730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST GA INTO UPSTATE/PIEDMONT SC AND NC
PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101531Z - 101730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON
FROM FAR NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN/PIEDMONT OF SC AND THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASIDE FROM SOME
TORNADO RISK. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/INCIPIENT TSTMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
INCREASE WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE
INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH GA INTO UPSTATE SC/WEST-CENTRAL NC.
FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO GENERALLY INCREASE
OVER THE REGION THE REMINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND KY/TN. THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY EXISTING CLOUD
COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED CORRIDORS OF EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CINH IS VERY MINIMAL /ADJUSTED REGIONAL 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/ AND MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/POCKETS OF LOCALLY
STRONGER HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPES TO REACH OR EXCEED 500 J/KG
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/.
AS UPDRAFTS/STORMS MATURE COINCIDENT WITH MORE
DESTABILIZATION...WELL-ORGANIZED/MAINLY LINEAR STRUCTURES INCLUDING
POSSIBLE SMALL BOWS/LEWPS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...ALTHOUGH
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE CONCERN...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY EXIST WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO
RISK AS WELL.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33598292 34238349 34728300 36098029 35827782 33547978
33598292SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 1:18 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Burke, Columbia, Lincoln, McDuffie, Richmond | 9 hr |
| Jun 10, 7:20 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Chatham, Effingham, Liberty | 85 min |
| Jun 10, 12:56 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gates, Hertford, Northampton, Warren | 2 hr |
| Jun 10, 2:02 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alleghany, Bertie, Camden, Caswell, Chowan, Currituck and 10 more | 10 hr |
| Jun 10, 4:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham and 20 more | 87 min |
| Jun 10, 4:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gates | 97 min |
| Jun 10, 5:47 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Chowan, Columbus, Craven and 14 more | 58 min |
| Jun 10, 6:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Graham | 93 min |
| Jun 10, 6:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gates, Halifax, Hertford, Northampton | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.