Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 1007

June 9, 2013Geneva County, Alabama; 5 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2013, 1:43 PM CDT for Geneva County, Alabama; 5 counties in Florida. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2013, 1:43 PM CDT (18:43 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2013, 2:45 PM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Geneva County, AL, Bay County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2013-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2042 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2013-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 48 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2042 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
479 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

652 
ACUS11 KWNS 091844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091843 
FLZ000-ALZ000-091945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE / FAR SERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091843Z - 091945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SERN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A MCV MOVING NEWD AND
ONSHORE BALDWIN COUNTY AL AS A LINE SEGMENT MOVES NEWD OVER WALTON
COUNTY FL.  KEVX VWP SHOWS A LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
30-35 KT FLOW IN THE 1-5 KM LAYER...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. 
MOIST LOW LEVELS /LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE
ACTED TO DESTABILIZE THIS REGION...AND PERHAPS FACILITATE A MORE
AMENABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR AN ISOLD POCKET OF DMGG WINDS ATTENDANT
WITH THE LINE SEGMENT.  THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF THE EXPECTED
POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30358623 30848631 31228559 30898511 30208524 30048550
            30358623

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.