Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

307 
WWUS55 KSLC 292101
SVSSLC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
301 PM MDT THU AUG 29 2013

UTC045-292115-
/O.CON.KSLC.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130829T2115Z/
TOOELE UT-
301 PM MDT THU AUG 29 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN TOOELE COUNTY...

AT 259 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 23 MILES SOUTH OF
WENDOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  RURAL WESTERN TOOELE COUNTY

LAT...LON 4087 11407 4099 11388 4024 11339 4010 11406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 238DEG 25KT 4043 11394

$$

KRUSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU AUG 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BEGINNING
FRIDAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SPREADING FROM ITS
ESTABLISHED POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THIS RIDGE
INCREASING THE STABILITY OVER THE REGION...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DECREASED COMPARED TO
MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING OFF INTO
ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THAT SAID...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FAR SOUTHERN UTAH FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IF THAT
DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE...BUT FOR NOW MOST
ANALYSES AND FORECASTS KEEP THE BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH INTO
ARIZONA AND NEVADA.

FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LINGERING NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE SURGE
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z
GFS. THE EC CURRENTLY RETAINS YESTERDAYS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
MOISTURE RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. THE 06Z GFS
HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS MOISTURE RETURN...WITH MONDAY REMAINING DRY
IN THE NORTH AND TUESDAY BEING THE MORE ACTIVE DAY. 12Z RUNS MAY
ADD SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH TODAY...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SCHOENING/CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
953 AM MDT THU AUG 29 2013

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-301200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
953 AM MDT THU AUG 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF UTAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY. SLOT CANYONS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES...BURN SCARS AND URBAN
AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OVER NORTHERN UTAH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX