Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
454 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
THROUGH UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
UT/NV BORDER THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM. SAID SHORT WAVES
INTERACTION WITH EARLIER MCS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA PROVIDED AN
EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED TAP INTO MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF TROPICAL
STORM IVO TODAY...TONGUE OF ELEVATED PWAT RANGING FROM 1.1 TO 1.3
INCHES SURGED RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS SUCH. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
NORMALIZED VALUES APPROACHING .25 AT TIMES ALLOWED FOR RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST THAT IS ONGOING AT THIS
TIME.

DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINERS AND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/JET ALOFT ALLOWED FOR MULTIPLE
NEAR SEVERE CELLS. HAIL TO PENNIES AND RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1.2
INCHES IN 20 MINUTES WERE REALIZED IN WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE
SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE FOCUSING ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THIS IS TYPED WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. OF
MOST CONCERN ARE AREA BURN SCARS AND DEBRIS FLOW POTENTIAL BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SMALL TO MODERATE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THIS LATEST PACKAGE.

AS SAID SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS EVENING ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM WESTERN
PORTIONS TO THE EAST THOUGH THREAT OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LOOKS TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 03/04Z PER SHORT RANGE SREF PRODUCTS.

SHIFTING FOCUS TO IVO AND ITS EVOLUTION...GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND
WET PERIOD TAKING FORM TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. REMNANT MOISTURE/DYNAMICS FROM IVO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE IN MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG A DEVELOPING 70-80 KNOT
JET OVER EASTERN NEVADA. INITIAL SURGE ENTERS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPEST
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO TRACK AS FAR NORTH AS THE WASATCH FRONT BY
THE EVENING. HAVE NOT MADE DRASTIC CHANGES TO FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
INCREASING POPS/QPF FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS GLOBALS LINING UP
BETTER WITH ONE SUCH MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE. LEANED ON HIGHER SIDE
FOR QPF...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LIFT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPE
COMBINED WITH BROAD LIFT SUPPORTED BY JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MANY AREAS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH AS MULTIPLE SLOTS SHOULD SEE FLOWS
AND LARGER MAINSTEMS LOOK TO SEE NOTICEABLE RISES PER RECENT
COORDINATION WITH CBRFC.

THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE MIDWEEK...TAP TO
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SAID...MID TO LATE WEEK MORE TYPICAL OF MOST
MONSOONAL PLUMES AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. DID NOT FOCUS ON THESE LATTER PERIODS AS MUCH AS SHORT
TERM DUE TO ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BE A
DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 3Z TO 4Z THIS EVENING. IF A
THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVERHEAD...A 40 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS
CONDITIONS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WITH STORMS IN THE VICINITY. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STATE INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING
RAIN...AND THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN. THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW...AND MOVING NORTHWARD MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     UTZ010>014-016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

MERRILL/HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
459 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-252300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
459 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL TO PENNY SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS LONG DURATION RAINFALL MAY CAUSE DRY WASHES AND SLOT CANYONS
TO EXPERIENCE ENHANCED RUNOFF. BURN SCARS WILL ALSO BE AT RISK OF
DEBRIS FLOWS. POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS IN URBAN
ENVIRONMENTS WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

UTZ002-003-007-008-242315-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT UT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS UT-WASATCH
MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH UT-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80 UT-
450 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN DAVIS...EASTERN SALT LAKE AND EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

AT 448 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SALT LAKE CITY TO
DRAPER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IN SOUTH SALT LAKE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS. THERE IS AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 645 PM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HOLLADAY AND  UNIVERSITY OF UTAH...
   COTTONWOOD HEIGHTS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4049 11176 4045 11185 4048 11190 4079 11191
      4100 11174 4093 11167 4061 11166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 212DEG 17KT 4078 11184 4049 11184

KRUSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
451 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             SOUTH SALT LAKE         40.71N 111.90W
08/24/2013  M0.75 INCH       SALT LAKE          UT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

CRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
503 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             SOUTH SALT LAKE         40.71N 111.90W
08/24/2013  E1.00 INCH       SALT LAKE          UT   PUBLIC

&&

CRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
512 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 N VIRGIN             37.37N 113.20W
08/24/2013                   WASHINGTON         UT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FLASH FLOOD ON KOLOB TERRACE AND THE SUBWAY AREA OF ZION
            NATIONAL PARK.

&&

MCONGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
512 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

UTZ002-006-007-250000-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT UT-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS UT-WASATCH
MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH UT-
512 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MORGAN...EXTREME SOUTHERN
CACHE...NORTHEASTERN DAVIS AND EASTERN WEBER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

AT 507 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KAYSVILLE...OR 6 MILES WEST OF FARMINGTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   EAST LAYTON... LAYTON... FRUIT HEIGHTS AND  CLEARFIELD...
   SOUTH WEBER AND  HILL AIR FORCE BASE...
   SOUTH WEBER... UINTAH AND  SOUTH OGDEN...
   MOUNTAIN GREEN AND  PETERSON...
   SNOWBASIN...
   PINEVIEW RESERVOIR...
   HUNTSVILLE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4127 11150 4092 11197 4093 11200 4100 11214
      4142 11176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 218DEG 23KT 4102 11197

KRUSE