Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

083 
WWUS85 KSLC 050406
RFWSLC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1006 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

UTZ478-492-050515-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130805T0400Z/
SALT LAKE DESERT-CENTRAL UTAH WEST DESERT-
1006 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 478 AND 492...

DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL UTAH...THUS
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
318 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN.  SOUNDINGS AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED POOL OF
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH SOUTHEAST CORNER.  DRIER AIR WITH VALUES OF A
HALF AN INCH OR LESS WERE INDICATED OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...REACHING ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF FORECAST AREA BY
EVENING.  MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF UTAH...WHERE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT UNDER TAIL OF UPPER JET
INDICATED AND DEEPEST MOISTURE IN PLACE.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT AROUND 10 KTS NOT ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.  SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD ROTATE BY TO THE EAST
OF FORECAST AREA.  ALL CONSIDERED...LOOKS LIKE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT AN
ISOLATED EVENT OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SIMILAR STORY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD
FLOW MAY ACTUALLY PUSH A BIT DRIER AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
UTAH.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS MODELS NOW SUGGEST A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.  NORMALLY WOULD BE
SKEPTICAL OF SUCH A SMALL-SCALE FEATURE...BUT NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
ALL INDICATE FEATURE.  AHEAD OF IT...MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO FORECAST AREA.  COMPLETE
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY...APPEARS TUESDAY WILL BE BEST POTENTIAL
DAY FOR FLASH FLOODING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL DRYING AS FLOW SHIFTS MORE
WESTERLY...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO HOLD ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXTENDING TO EASTERN GREAT BASIN.  RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST.  RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GIVEN
SOUTHWEST FLOW.  RIDGE WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF UTAH...SO LIKE GOING POPS THESE AREAS BOTH
DAYS.

THOUGH BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEEMS LIKE GOING READINGS MIGHT STILL BE A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE...GIVEN RECENT TRENDS.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRE DISTRICT WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO UTAH THROUGH
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WETTING RAINS. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE DISTRICT BEGINNING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  A LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST LAKE BREEZE WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-051315-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
246 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
FOR BURN SCARS...SLOT CANYONS...DRY WASHES AND URBAN LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY BUT LINGER TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX