Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

700 
WGUS75 KSLC 192333
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
533 PM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

UTC043-192341-
/O.CAN.KSLC.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-130820T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUMMIT UT-
533 PM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL SUMMIT
COUNTY...

DUE TO A LACK OF DEBRIS MOVING ON THE ROCKPORT BURN SCAR...THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITATION IN 
THE AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WILL BE MINIMAL.

AS A RESULT...THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4078 11144 4079 11141 4077 11141 4075 11142
      4076 11145

$$

MCINERNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN UTAH MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST ALONG THE UT/CO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS IS INDUCING A VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WAVE IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NV...WITH THE TAIL END OF
THIS WAVE EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL UT.

ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH OVER WESTERN
UT...AND IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE EAST PER GOES
IMAGERY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE...CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF PERSISTENT CORES HAS
BEEN RATHER BENIGN. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 100MB MEAN LAYER CAPE
REMAINS MODEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE NV WAVE IS ALSO LIMITING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN UT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR NOW...HOWEVER IF ACTIVITY DOES NOT PICK UP
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS MAY NEED TO CANCEL. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL UT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN UT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT LIFTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. AS SUCH TUESDAY MAY BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...ASSUMING CLOUD COVER
DOES NOT LIMIT INSTABILITY/CONVECTION. GENERALLY MAINTAINED GOING
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COASTLINE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NV DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO DRY
SOMEWHAT OVER WESTERN UT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TREND OF LOWER POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC ADVERTISE A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE PLUME
WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST ALLOWING FOR A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS MOISTURE SURGE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH HAS YET TO FORM OFF THE MX COAST. THE EC IS
ROUGHLY A DAY FASTER BRINGING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND WHETHER THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL INDEED
COME TOGETHER LEADS TO A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN SALT
LAKE VALLEY AND UTAH COUNTY COULD SEND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS
THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 23-01Z SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL NOT REACH THE AIRFIELD AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST UNTIL 03-04Z BEFORE THEY SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
WITHIN 5SM OF THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT
06-08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...WETTING RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRYING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY...AND A BIT MORE
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ010-012>016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

SEAMAN/WILENSKY/HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
402 AM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-201015-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
402 AM MDT MON AUG 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF UTAH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THESE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL MOVE LITTLE...SO THERE IS A HEIGHTENED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BURN SCARS...SLOT CANYONS...AND NORMALLY
DRY WASHES WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TOMORROW...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TOWARD
NORTHERN UTAH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UTAH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX