Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

754 
WGUS75 KSLC 140221
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
821 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

UTC055-140231-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0111.000000T0000Z-130914T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE UT-
821 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM MDT FOR SULPHUR 
CREEK IN CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY...

SUFFICIENT TIME HAS ALLOWED DRAINAGES TO RECEDE. THERE IS THE THREAT 
OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3829 11121 3828 11121 3827 11136 3834 11136

$$

ROGOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
418 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST
UTAH WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO GRIND AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN THE RAPID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW TODAY.
CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN GENERATING HEAVY RAIN...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL IN THIS LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH
THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION SHIFTING EAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE CLOUD COVER AND
STABLE RAIN-COOLED AIR. THIS STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY
DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN UTAH MAY ALSO SEE A BIT MORE
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLING IN THE
MID-LEVELS ALONG WITH LESS EARLY CLOUD COVER WOULD SUPPORT
STRONGER/DEEPER CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY WILL FUNCTION AS THE KICKER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OUT
OF NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER/STABLE AND
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL FIND TOUGH
SLEDDING IN GENERATING PRECIP IN THE DRY/STABLE AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LATER PERIODS IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST COLD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE GFS
WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD TROUGH. AT THIS POINT
ANY BIG CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS BEYOND THE CURRENT SEVEN DAY
FORECAST...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANGES ARE A COMING SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXISTS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AND LOWERING CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FT IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP STATEWIDE TOMORROW AND AGAIN SUNDAY. WETTING RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY ALL THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD...WITH STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE STATE MONDAY...WITH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
515 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-141200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
515 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
IT DECREASES OVER THE SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
OVER THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX