Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN INTERSECTING DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THIS FEATURE
WILL OVERSPREAD WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN QUESTION
IS WEATHER CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
FEATURES THIS EVENING. COPIOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIMITING SURFACE HEATING BUT LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT RANGE AND
HIRES MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY LATER
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG QPF SIGNAL WITHIN MODELS HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
AGAIN BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
DRYLINE MIXING EAST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS BUT
DID INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE AREA. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF TSTMS WILL TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/MLCAPE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/ AND
0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. HAVE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR
TSTMS GOING DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
BY 00Z MONDAY AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL QUSAI ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT/POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/ THEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON MORE WARM DAY
MONDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO...WINDY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS GOING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SO GOING
MAINLY BELOW MEX GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW. GOING WITH MAINLY A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 60  82  58  78  58 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN ANGELO 	 59  84  59  86  58 /  10  10  10  20  30
JUNCTION 	 60  78  59  86  61 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

24/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-302100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
359 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...THE CONCHO
VALLEY...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CROCKETT COUNTY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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