Red Flag Warning 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
AT KABI BY 09Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SUBSIDING TO 12 KT OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AN INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW- LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CONCHO VALLEY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS...TO
THE UPPER 30S/ LOWER 40S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.

WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MAY DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY...A DRYLINE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

A VERY TIGHTLY WOUND PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY...AND THE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS AZ TOWARDS WEST TEXAS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO BROWNWOOD.
HOWEVER...AREAS SOUTH OF THAT LINE STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS A LIMITED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 0-6KM LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...GREATER
THAN 60 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH...WE WILL SEE WEAK TROUGHING TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER
DRY...AND ALLOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS GUSTY WEST WINDS MOVE IN ALONG WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR. BY SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALOFT
AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY. THIS IS PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM ALBANY TO STERLING CITY. WITH THE FORECAST CONDITIONS
STILL MARGINAL HOWEVER...CONTINUING TO HOLD OFF WITH FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP /FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONT/ LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. ACROSS THAT AREA...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BRING AN INTRUSION OF
VERY DRY AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...GUSTY WEST WINDS AND YET ANOTHER DRY AIR
INTRUSION ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS
RECEIVED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 40  71  51  68  37 /   0   0   0   5   0
SAN ANGELO 	 35  71  52  74  39 /   0   0   0   5   0
JUNCTION 	 30  68  51  77  40 /   0   0   0  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
121 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-171200-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
121 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. SIMILAR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON