Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS San Angelo, TX

734 
WGUS74 KSJT 180053
FFSSJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
753 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TXC059-253-441-180200-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130618T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-CALLAHAN TX-
753 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN...NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES
COUNTIES...

AT 740 PM CDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND LOCAL MEDIA REPORTS INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS IS ONGOING IN THE 
ABILENE AREA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ESTIMATES THAT THE 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES...HAS OCCURRED IN THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CITY OF ABILENE...EXTENDING NORTH 
AND EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND FAR NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN 
COUNTIES.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AT 740 PM SHOWED ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF ABILENE...THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
ABILENE AREA THROUGH 900 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE 
HALF TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF ABILENE...
WITH LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ABILENE...
TYE...AND DYESS AFB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 9963 3251 9963 3228 9950 3224 9964
      3236 9991 3257 9993

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND
STRATUS TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
LATER TONIGHT. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOOK FOR CHALLENGING FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE RUC INDICATES WE COULD HAVE AN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE
THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...I DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT
FOR ABILENE. LATER TONIGHT...THE NAM BRING STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS BACK TO JUNCTION. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

HUBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY/

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE
BIG COUNTRY AT 3 PM...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM A MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT...EAST OF
LUBBOCK THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. IT MAY BE LATE EVENING FOR STORMS
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD.

WITH SB CAPES OF 3000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO 40 KTS (BIG
COUNTRY)THIS EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC DAY 1
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND.

THERE IS A SIMILAR SETUP FOR TUESDAY...WITH DISSIPATING FRONT IN
THE BIG COUNTRY BEING THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON.

04

LONG TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW POPS
WERE INCLUDED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE BY 9 PM BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A DECENT MID
LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX. I DID INCLUDE LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF ABILENE THROUGH 18Z TO
CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME VERY SCARCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS COULD REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BUT I
THINK THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH BRIEF STRATUS
EPISODES OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTING
THAT THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/GEM REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD 2. THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS BRINGING A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WAVE UP THE RIO GRANDE
AND LIFTING IT NORTH ACROSS WEST TX OVER THE WEEKEND...VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUN IS KEEPING ANY REMNANTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...
ADVECTING IT NEARLY DUE WEST INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE TPC FORECAST. GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM
AND ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY
REASONABLE. THUS...NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR WEST
CENTRAL TX.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 70  92  72  95  75 /  50  30  30  10   5
SAN ANGELO 	 72  94  73  96  75 /  30  20  20   5   0
JUNCTION 	 73  93  72  93  73 /  20  10  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HUBER/04/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
301 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-182015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
301 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF BIG LAKE....SAN ANGELO...
BROWNWOOD LINE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF
LUBBOCK ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS....LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUSTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
622 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE ABILENE           32.43N  99.68W
06/17/2013  M65 MPH          TAYLOR             TX   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST FROM ASOS EQUIPMENT AT THE ABILENE
            REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300381

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ABILENE                 32.45N  99.73W
06/17/2013                   TAYLOR             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SKYWARN SPOTTERS IN ABILENE REPORTED POWER POLES BLOWN
            DOWN AND LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300382

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE ABILENE           32.43N  99.68W
06/17/2013  M69 MPH          TAYLOR             TX   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST FROM ASOS EQUIPMENT AT THE ABILENE
            REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300383

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAMBY                   32.52N  99.63W
06/17/2013  E70 MPH          JONES              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300384

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
643 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMBY                   32.52N  99.63W
06/17/2013                   JONES              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TWO OAK TREES UPROOTED. THE TREES ARE 24 FEET IN
            LENGTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300385

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
654 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POTOSI                  32.34N  99.68W
06/17/2013                   TAYLOR             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            PARTIAL ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300386

DOLL