Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
954 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 71 NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS
THROUGH 7 PM. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 70. MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM HOPE ARKANSAS TO
LINDALE TEXAS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER RECENT RADAR TRENDS
INDICATES SIGNS OF ROTATION WITHIN EMBEDDED CELLS. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF INTENSE STORMS IS MOVG TO SE AT 40 MPH...AND WILL REACH
THE KTYR...KGGG...AND KSHV TERMINALS BTWN 15 TO 1630Z. WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS EXPECTED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STORMS...WITH 50 TO 60 KTS
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. KMLU...KELD...AND KLFK...WILL SEE STORMS AFTER 16Z. IN THE
MEANTIME...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO HIGH IFR CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF STORMS...EXPECT MOSTLY LOW VFR CIGS
IN LINGERING SHOWERS...AND WINDS BECMG NORTH 10 TO 15 KTS./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR TODAY...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS BEARING DOWN ON
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF HIS FEATURE AS IT
DIVES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING. COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP
OVER EAST TEXAS INTO NORTH LOUISIANA AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AND MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE
FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL...POSSIBLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20.
WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE SHORT WAVE...
THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS SMALL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A SHIFT IN UPPER PATTERN TO A MORE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION...OVERRIDING
COOLER SURFACE AIR...SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC RAIN EVENT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN TO BEGIN TUESDAY...CONTINUING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF EVENTS
WITH THE ECM SLIGHTLY SLOWER. HOWEVER...WILL STILL GRADUALLY END
THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY. DRY AIR TO FOLLOW THE TROUGH...
WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD UNTIL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOOKS LIKE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP TUESDAY...
NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND IT WILL BE WEDNESDAY BEFORE ALL OF THE CWA
COOLS. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 70S
FRIDAY.

AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING MOST OF
THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. ANY LOW VSBYS DUE
TO FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND CIGS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY BUT
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 IN WRN OK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM TSTMS
THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
END FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  57  76  57  69 /  70  30  10  20  60
MLU  72  56  76  52  69 /  70  30  10  10  50
DEQ  71  49  73  52  56 /  70  10  10  40  60
TXK  70  54  77  54  61 /  70  20  10  30  60
ELD  70  53  77  49  62 /  70  20  10  20  60
TYR  75  57  77  59  69 /  70  20  10  30  60
GGG  75  56  77  58  70 /  70  20  10  20  60
LFK  77  60  79  61  73 /  70  30  10  20  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-311700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
510 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HAIL             LONGVIEW                32.52N  94.76W
03/31/2013  E1.00 INCH       GREGG              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1300049

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1016 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S LAKEPORT            32.39N  94.71W
03/31/2013  M66 MPH          GREGG              TX   ASOS

            KGGG ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1300050

09

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