Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLICATED FORECAST TO DEAL WITH TODAY...AS MOISTURE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LACK OF A
DEFINED TRIGGER MAKES RAIN CHANCES QUESTIONABLE. A COLD FRONT
IS SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CURRENTLY NEAR
A FAYETTEVILLE...OKLAHOMA CITY...WICHITA FALLS LINE. THIS FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. SO THE ONLY
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS WE HAVE TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN GULF STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN...AS
A WEAK TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH TODAY. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...I HAVE DECIDED TO RETREAT BACK TO A 50
PERCENT POP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. TEMPS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...SO I BUMPED MAX TEMPS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO. UPDATED PACKAGE WILL BE OUT BY 1100 AM.

ELEVEN

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS GENERATED SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS SW AR...BUT OTHERWISE...CONVECTION YET TO DEVELOP
FURTHER S AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FILL IN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
AND LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
BE S TO SWLY AT 5-10 KTS TODAY...DECREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING
MORE SELY OVERNIGHT. /12/

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  66  84  65  81 /  50  50  50  30  50
MLU  85  65  84  62  83 /  50  50  50  20  20
DEQ  82  64  81  62  75 /  50  30  30  40  60
TXK  84  65  82  63  77 /  50  30  30  40  60
ELD  83  64  82  61  80 /  50  50  50  30  30
TYR  86  68  83  67  81 /  50  40  40  30  60
GGG  85  67  84  66  80 /  50  40  40  30  50
LFK  87  70  85  69  84 /  50  50  50  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1123 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS COULD NEAR ONE TO TWO INCHES WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SUCH A RICH SUPPLY OF
GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE...RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES PROVIDING PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS...LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAMS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
ALSO FILL TO MINOR OVERFLOW. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES COULD OCCUR FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

ELEVEN

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