Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1036 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR TODAYS TEMPERATURES...AS
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP WILL KEEP READINGS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA MAY ALREADY HAVE WARMED TO
NEAR THE MAX...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BRINGS COOLER AIR SOUTH.
HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH POPS...AS A VERY UNSTABLE 12Z SHV SOUNDING
COMBINED WITH A PW OF 2 INCHES IS JUST WAITING FOR A LITTLE LIFT...
EITHER BY HEATING OR A BOUNDARY.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND NE OF A KPRX/KSHV/KIER LINE...AS A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
MOVE INTO THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS
BY TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH AND BEYOND THE END
OF THE 18Z TAF PD. AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL DECLINE. WINDS N OF I-20
WILL GENERALLY BE VRBL WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE
VC...AND SW AT 8-10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS AREAS S OF I-20.
/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  73  87  66  90 /  50  70  70  30  20
MLU  92  71  86  63  88 /  70  70  70  30  20
DEQ  85  70  84  58  87 /  70  70  50  20  10
TXK  88  71  85  60  88 /  70  70  50  20  10
ELD  85  70  84  58  87 /  70  70  50  20  10
TYR  95  74  89  67  91 /  30  60  60  30  20
GGG  95  74  88  65  91 /  30  60  60  30  20
LFK  98  74  90  68  92 /  20  40  60  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1156 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND DAMAGE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

ARZ070-071-LAZ001-002-TXZ112-131900-
BOSSIER-CADDO-CASS-LAFAYETTE-MILLER-
104 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     LAFAYETTE AND MILLER...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     CASS...
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     CADDO AND BOSSIER...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BRADLEY...DODDRIDGE...RAVANNA...GILLIAM...HOSSTON...IDA...PLAIN
     DEALING...RODESSA...VIVIAN...BIVINS AND MCLEOD...

AT 101 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIVINS...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
ATLANTA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
145 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

TXZ111-112-131930-
CASS-MORRIS-
145 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     MORRIS AND CASS...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     DAINGERFIELD...HUGHES SPRINGS...JENKINS...KILDARE...LINDEN AND
     ROCKY BRANCH...

AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DAINGERFIELD...OR 17 MILES EAST
OF PITTSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BREIF BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
208 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

LAZ005-013-131945-
JACKSON-LINCOLN-
208 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     LINCOLN AND JACKSON...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     GRAMBLING AND RUSTON...

AT 204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRAMBLING...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WCM